KOSPI · 036460 · Utilities · ₩036460

Korea Gas한국가스공사

036460 · KOSPI · ₩036460 · 한국가스공사

₩36,600▲ ₩550 (1.53%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩75,262

vs the current price (₩36,600)

Enterprise value: ₩37T
Equity value: ₩6.9T
WACC: 4.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 106% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩36,600, the model needs an operating margin of 5.2% every year (it uses 5.6%).
Or revenue growth −2.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Today's P/E is 5.9× against a typical 3.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: ₩75,262; +105.6%
Bull: ₩779,259; +2,029.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.6%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 3-3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 4-0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin5.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation5%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending4.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital27.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.22, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩35T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩32T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩1.8T; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 92,313,000
Share price: ₩36,600
Market cap: ₩3.4T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩45T	₩38T	₩36T	₩31T	₩29T	₩28T	₩28T	₩29T
Growth	−13.9%	−13.8%	−6.9%	−10.0%	−6.7%	−3.5%	−0.2%	3.0%
EBIT	₩1.6T	₩3T	₩2.1T	₩1.7T	₩1.6T	₩1.6T	₩1.6T	₩1.6T
EBIT margin	3.5%	7.8%	5.9%	5.6%	5.6%	5.6%	5.6%	5.6%
After-tax EBIT	₩1.1T	₩2.2T	₩1.5T	₩1.3T	₩1.2T	₩1.1T	₩1.1T	₩1.2T
+ Depreciation	—	₩1.9T	₩1.8T	₩1.6T	₩1.5T	₩1.4T	₩1.4T	₩1.4T
− Capital spending	₩1.4T	₩1.8T	₩2.2T	₩1.5T	₩1.4T	₩1.3T	₩1.3T	₩1.4T
− Working capital	−₩7.9T	₩487B	−₩3.9T	−₩967B	−₩583B	−₩284B	−₩16B	₩235B
Free cash flow	—	₩1.8T	₩5T	₩2.3T	₩1.9T	₩1.5T	₩1.2T	₩1T
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.958	0.918	0.879	0.842	0.807
Present value	—	—	—	₩2.2T	₩1.7T	₩1.3T	₩1T	₩827B

Terminal value ₩37T, worth ₩30T today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩127,396 a share)Now 0.29×	₩29,0950.23×	₩41,8170.33×	₩54,3650.43×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩6,152 a share)Now 5.95×	₩14,3782.34×	₩21,1963.45×	₩125,79720.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩14,693 a share)Now 2.49×	₩34,3412.34×	₩50,6253.45×	₩300,45920.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
3.4%	₩121,043	₩200,820	₩337,807	₩628,645	—
3.9%	₩49,207	₩97,770	₩171,865	₩299,083	₩569,160
4.4%	—	₩30,289	₩75,262	₩143,869	₩261,651
4.9%	—	—	₩11,987	₩53,492	₩116,799
5.4%	—	—	—	—	₩32,436

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩3.4T
Enterprise value: ₩35T
P/E: 5.9×
P/B: 0.3×
P/S: 0.1×
EV/EBITDA: 8.6×
Dividend yield: 3.2%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩39,300	₩34,700	₩24,700	₩36,200	₩39,100
Market cap	₩3.6T	₩3.2T	₩2.3T	₩3.3T	₩3.6T
P/E	27.3×	2.8×	—	2.2×	3.8×
P/B	0.3×	0.3×	0.2×	0.3×	0.4×
P/S	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×	0.1×
EV/EBITDA	9.6×	8.5×	—	—	—
Dividend yield	2.9%	4.2%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Korea Gas	5.9×	0.3×	0.1×	8.6×	3.2%
Korea Electric Power	2.3×	0.4×	0.2×	5.7×	5.5%
Korea District Heating	2.3×	0.3×	0.2×	4.8×	8.6%
SGC Energy	—	0.7×	0.2×	—	4.0%
Samchully	3.2×	0.2×	0.1×	—	2.5%
Seoul City Gas	11.4×	0.2×	0.1×	—	0.0%
Daesung Energy	6.5×	0.5×	0.2×	—	3.6%
Similar companies (median)	3.2×	0.3×	0.2×	5.2×	3.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Korea Gas / 한국가스공사 / 036460 / KRX:036460

Source: KRX statistical information