Ask Warren

SFA Semicon

036540 · KOSDAQ · ₩036540 · SFA반도체

₩8,980▲ ₩260 (2.98%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩32B
Equity value
−₩28B
WACC
9.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩8,980, the model needs an operating margin of 44.1% every year (it uses 0.2%).
  • Margins ranged from −5.3% to 10.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩245
−97.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.2%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 0.2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 7.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 18.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.97

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.96, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩450B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩3.6B
Shares
164,460,303
Share price
₩8,980
Market cap
₩1.5T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩438B₩400B₩367B₩405B₩378B₩364B₩364B₩375B
Growth−37.4%−8.5%−8.3%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩17B−₩31M−₩20B₩809M₩755M₩729M₩727M₩749M
EBIT margin−3.8%−0.0%−5.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%
After-tax EBIT−₩12B−₩22M−₩14B₩587M₩547M₩528M₩527M₩543M
+ Depreciation———₩23B₩22B₩21B₩21B₩21B
− Capital spending₩27B₩37B₩22B₩29B₩27B₩26B₩26B₩27B
− Working capital−₩103B₩33B−₩26B−₩8.5B−₩5.1B−₩2.5B−₩138M₩2.1B
Free cash flow———₩3.4B₩386M−₩2.1B−₩4.4B−₩6.8B
Discount factor———0.9140.8350.7630.6970.637
Present value———₩3.1B₩322M−₩1.6B−₩3.1B−₩4.3B

Terminal value −₩41B, worth −₩26B today: 83% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,918 a share)Now 3.08×₩3,2061.10×₩5,5201.89×₩8,2802.84×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
8.4%—————
8.9%—————
9.4%—————
9.9%—————
10.4%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.5T
Enterprise value
₩1.4T
P/E
—
P/B
3.1×
P/S
3.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,575₩3,085₩6,030₩3,845₩7,690
Market cap₩752B₩507B₩992B₩632B₩1.3T
P/E—23.8×—14.7×24.0×
P/B1.6×1.0×2.2×1.4×3.2×
P/S2.0×1.3×2.3×0.9×2.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
SFA Semicon—3.1×3.3×—0.0%
SK hynix6.7×4.1×5.7×—0.2%
DB HiTek12.6×1.8×2.8×—0.8%
Fadu—40.1×14.0×—0.0%
Hana Micron14.4×4.5×1.2×—0.2%
Jeju Semiconductor10.4×5.4×3.6×—0.0%
Hana Materials16.2×1.7×3.1×—0.6%
Similar companies (median)12.6×4.3×3.3×—0.2%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: SFA Semicon / SFA반도체 / 036540 / KRX:036540

Source: KRX statistical information