NCNC
036570 · KOSPI · ₩036570 · NC
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩125,059
vs the current price (₩198,700)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.7T
- Equity value
- ₩2.7T
- WACC
- 8.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 37% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩198,700, the model needs an operating margin of 17.7% every year (it uses 9.6%).
- Or revenue growth +19.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩2.9T, operating profit ₩330B (11.5% margin) (2 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩3.3T, operating profit ₩292B (9.0% margin) (2 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
- Margins ranged from −6.9% to 21.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 67% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- Today's P/E is 6.9× against a typical 18.1× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩95,323
- −52.0%
- Base
- ₩125,059
- −37.1%
- Bull
- ₩174,988
- −11.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.6%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-16.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 9.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 25.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.71
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.56, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩2.1T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩1T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩63B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩42B
- Shares
- 21,544,022
- Share price
- ₩198,700
- Market cap
- ₩4.3T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.8T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.7T |
| Growth | −30.8% | −11.3% | −4.5% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩137B | −₩109B | ₩16B | ₩181B | ₩169B | ₩163B | ₩162B | ₩167B |
| EBIT margin | 7.7% | −6.9% | 1.1% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩100B | −₩79B | ₩12B | ₩131B | ₩122B | ₩118B | ₩118B | ₩121B |
| + Depreciation | ₩110B | ₩106B | ₩91B | ₩119B | ₩111B | ₩107B | ₩107B | ₩110B |
| − Capital spending | ₩159B | ₩95B | ₩115B | ₩141B | ₩132B | ₩127B | ₩127B | ₩131B |
| − Working capital | −₩406B | −₩402B | ₩733B | −₩53B | −₩32B | −₩16B | −₩865M | ₩13B |
| Free cash flow | ₩456B | ₩334B | −₩745B | ₩162B | ₩133B | ₩113B | ₩98B | ₩87B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.680 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩150B | ₩114B | ₩90B | ₩72B | ₩59B |
Terminal value ₩1.7T, worth ₩1.2T today: 71% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩164,331 a share)Now 1.21× | ₩195,2591.19× | ₩254,1111.55× | ₩513,1563.12× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩28,673 a share)Now 6.93× | ₩364,39612.7× | ₩519,25318.1× | ₩959,24633.5× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩23,141 a share)Now 8.59× | ₩294,09212.7× | ₩419,07218.1× | ₩774,17533.5× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | ₩130,097 | ₩134,396 | ₩139,537 | ₩145,801 | ₩153,609 |
| 7.5% | ₩124,058 | ₩127,541 | ₩131,644 | ₩136,550 | ₩142,528 |
| 8.0% | ₩118,878 | ₩121,737 | ₩125,059 | ₩128,971 | ₩133,650 |
| 8.5% | ₩114,386 | ₩116,757 | ₩119,482 | ₩122,648 | ₩126,377 |
| 9.0% | ₩110,453 | ₩112,438 | ₩114,697 | ₩117,291 | ₩120,306 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩4.3T
- Enterprise value
- ₩3.1T
- P/E
- 6.9×
- P/B
- 1.2×
- P/S
- 2.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- 8.3×
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩201,500 | ₩183,100 | ₩240,500 | ₩448,000 | ₩643,000 |
| Market cap | ₩4.3T | ₩3.9T | ₩5.2T | ₩9.7T | ₩14T |
| P/E | 12.5× | 41.9× | 24.4× | 22.1× | 35.0× |
| P/B | 1.3× | 1.3× | 1.6× | 3.0× | 4.4× |
| P/S | 2.9× | 2.5× | 2.9× | 3.8× | 6.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.9× | — | 15.7× | 13.2× | 27.3× |
| Dividend yield | 0.6% | 0.8% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | 6.9× | 1.2× | 2.0× | 8.3× | 0.6% |
| Hyundai Autoever | 46.8× | 4.7× | 2.0× | — | 0.6% |
| Krafton | 10.0× | 1.2× | 1.9× | — | 1.2% |
| Netmarble | 7.1× | 0.5× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
| PearlAbyss | 7.9× | 2.0× | 3.0× | 5.1× | 0.0% |
| Shift UP | 9.0× | 1.8× | 7.1× | — | 0.0% |
| NHN | 22.9× | 1.1× | 0.6× | 3.9× | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 9.5× | 1.5× | 1.9× | 4.5× | 0.3% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: NC / 036570 / KRX:036570
Source: KRX statistical information