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Hankuk Package

037230 · KOSDAQ · ₩037230 · 한국팩키지

₩1,233▲ ₩12 (0.98%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩2,202

vs the current price (₩1,233)

Enterprise value
₩66B
Equity value
₩66B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 79% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,233, the model needs an operating margin of 1.7% every year (it uses 2.6%).
  • Margins ranged from −3.7% to 4.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 10.1× against a typical 15.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩275
−77.7%
Base
₩2,202
+78.6%
Bull
₩5,772
+368.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 1.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩229B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩18M
Shares
29,800,327
Share price
₩1,233
Market cap
₩37B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩228B₩226B₩224B₩231B₩235B₩239B₩245B₩253B
Growth4.9%−1.1%−0.7%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
EBIT₩8.6B₩6.8B₩9.9B₩6B₩6.1B₩6.2B₩6.4B₩6.6B
EBIT margin3.7%3.0%4.4%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
After-tax EBIT₩6.2B₩4.9B₩7.2B₩4.4B₩4.4B₩4.5B₩4.6B₩4.8B
+ Depreciation₩4B₩4.4B—₩4.4B₩4.5B₩4.5B₩4.7B₩4.8B
− Capital spending₩3B₩4.4B₩1.3B₩3B₩3.1B₩3.1B₩3.2B₩3.3B
− Working capital₩7.2B−₩9.1B−₩6.5B₩405M₩614M₩831M₩1.1B₩1.3B
Free cash flow−₩9.3M₩14B—₩5.3B₩5.2B₩5.1B₩5B₩5B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———₩5B₩4.5B₩4.1B₩3.8B₩3.5B

Terminal value ₩64B, worth ₩45B today: 68% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,746 a share)Now 0.33×₩1,7330.46×₩2,7690.74×₩5,8951.57×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩122 a share)Now 10.1×₩1,23310.1×₩1,85215.2×₩3,90032.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩46 a share)Now 26.7×₩46810.1×₩70315.2×₩1,48032.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩2,482₩2,558₩2,649₩2,762₩2,907
6.9%₩2,286₩2,340₩2,403₩2,479₩2,573
7.4%₩2,121₩2,158₩2,202₩2,253₩2,315
7.9%₩1,979₩2,005₩2,034₩2,068₩2,108
8.4%₩1,855₩1,873₩1,892₩1,914₩1,939

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩37B
Enterprise value
₩37B
P/E
10.1×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
4.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,955₩1,679₩2,000₩2,400₩4,610
Market cap₩58B₩50B₩60B₩72B₩137B
P/E10.2×40.3×14.6×——
P/B0.5×0.5×0.6×1.1×1.8×
P/S0.3×0.2×0.3×0.3×2.4×
EV/EBITDA—11.1×10.4×23.4×—
Dividend yield2.6%2.4%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hankuk Package10.1×0.3×0.2×—4.1%
SM Kukil—3.2×6.1×—0.0%
Shindaeyang Paper9.9×0.5×0.5×—2.8%
Dongwha Enterprise—0.4×0.3×—0.0%
Asia Paper Manufacturing10.5×0.3×0.3×—2.8%
Hansol Paper7.3×0.2×0.1×—7.3%
Sambo Corrugated Board4.5×0.2×0.2×—2.4%
Similar companies (median)8.6×0.3×0.3×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hankuk Package / 한국팩키지 / 037230 / KRX:037230

Source: KRX statistical information