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Elcomtec

037950 · KOSDAQ · ₩037950 · 엘컴텍

₩3,275▼ ₩20 (0.61%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,975

vs the current price (₩3,275)

Enterprise value
₩21B
Equity value
₩33B
WACC
14.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 40% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,275, the model needs an operating margin of 12.1% every year (it uses 6.6%).
  • Or revenue growth +32.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • 42% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 10.6× against a typical 20.8× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,438
−56.1%
Base
₩1,975
−39.7%
Bull
₩2,753
−15.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 3.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 20%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 1.87

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 2.29, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩63B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩8.9B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
16,889,503
Share price
₩3,275
Market cap
₩55B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩57B₩57B₩46B₩65B₩68B₩70B₩72B₩74B
Growth36.1%1.3%−19.3%3.6%3.5%3.3%3.2%3.0%
EBIT₩2.1B₩3.6B₩2.2B₩4.3B₩4.5B₩4.6B₩4.8B₩4.9B
EBIT margin3.8%6.2%4.8%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%6.6%
After-tax EBIT₩1.5B₩2.6B₩1.6B₩3.1B₩3.2B₩3.3B₩3.5B₩3.6B
+ Depreciation———₩2.2B₩2.2B₩2.3B₩2.4B₩2.5B
− Capital spending₩1.2B₩1.9B₩3.2B₩2.7B₩2.8B₩2.9B₩3B₩3B
− Working capital−₩34M₩5.2B−₩13B₩454M₩458M₩446M₩447M₩433M
Free cash flow———₩2.2B₩2.2B₩2.3B₩2.4B₩2.5B
Discount factor———0.8740.7640.6680.5840.511
Present value———₩1.9B₩1.7B₩1.6B₩1.4B₩1.3B

Terminal value ₩25B, worth ₩13B today: 62% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,111 a share)Now 0.64×₩4,0610.79×₩7,5881.48×₩10,9112.13×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩309 a share)Now 10.6×₩4,05113.1×₩6,42520.8×₩15,38249.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩473 a share)Now 6.92×₩6,21413.1×₩9,85620.8×₩23,59449.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
13.4%₩2,051₩2,070₩2,089₩2,111₩2,134
13.9%₩1,997₩2,013₩2,030₩2,049₩2,068
14.4%₩1,947₩1,961₩1,975₩1,991₩2,009
14.9%₩1,900₩1,912₩1,925₩1,939₩1,954
15.4%₩1,857₩1,867₩1,879₩1,891₩1,904

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩55B
Enterprise value
₩46B
P/E
10.6×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,323₩5,582₩7,114₩5,636₩7,059
Market cap₩73B₩94B₩120B₩95B₩119B
P/E29.5×18.9×48.0×12.1×29.1×
P/B0.9×1.2×1.6×1.3×1.9×
P/S1.6×1.6×2.1×2.3×2.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Elcomtec10.6×0.6×0.9×—0.0%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics96.8×9.5×7.8×—0.2%
Doosan39.2×5.5×0.7×—0.4%
Hanwha Systems71.2×2.8×3.0×—0.8%
LG Innotek13.1×1.4×0.4×—0.5%
Isupetasys35.4×8.3×5.4×—0.0%
Daeduck Electronics44.8×7.0×5.0×—0.4%
Similar companies (median)42.0×6.3×4.0×—0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Elcomtec / 엘컴텍 / 037950 / KRX:037950

Source: KRX statistical information