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Lumens Bios

038060 · KOSDAQ · ₩038060 · 루멘스바이오스

₩1,001▲ ₩8 (0.81%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,800

vs the current price (₩1,001)

Enterprise value
−₩34B
Equity value
₩47B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 80% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,001, the model needs an operating margin of −1.6% every year (it uses −0.7%).
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩950
−5.1%
Base
₩1,800
+79.8%
Bull
₩3,621
+261.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−0.7%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -0.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 16.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩164B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩62B
+ Stakes and investments
₩18B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
25,837,248
Share price
₩1,001
Market cap
₩26B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩171B₩174B₩176B₩167B₩170B₩174B₩179B₩184B
Growth3.0%1.7%0.8%1.8%2.1%2.4%2.7%3.0%
EBIT₩2.7B−₩1.6B−₩5B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.3B−₩1.3B
EBIT margin1.6%−0.9%−2.9%−0.7%−0.7%−0.7%−0.7%−0.7%
After-tax EBIT₩2B−₩1.2B−₩3.6B−₩846M−₩864M−₩885M−₩909M−₩936M
+ Depreciation———₩2.8B₩2.9B₩3B₩3B₩3.1B
− Capital spending₩5.3B₩2.7B₩2.7B₩3.5B₩3.6B₩3.7B₩3.8B₩3.9B
− Working capital−₩27B₩13B−₩15B₩498M₩592M₩691M₩796M₩908M
Free cash flow———−₩2B−₩2.1B−₩2.3B−₩2.4B−₩2.6B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———−₩1.9B−₩1.9B−₩1.8B−₩1.8B−₩1.8B

Terminal value −₩35B, worth −₩25B today: 73% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩4,250 a share)Now 0.24×₩1,4670.35×₩2,4010.57×₩3,3340.78×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩1,919₩1,739₩1,517₩1,237₩873
6.9%₩2,012₩1,858₩1,673₩1,444₩1,156
7.4%₩2,090₩1,958₩1,800₩1,609₩1,374
7.9%₩2,158₩2,042₩1,906₩1,744₩1,549
8.4%₩2,216₩2,114₩1,996₩1,856₩1,691

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩26B
Enterprise value
−₩37B
P/E
—
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,226₩2,134₩2,586₩2,040₩2,420
Market cap₩32B₩55B₩67B₩53B₩63B
P/E—6.2×16.7×3.3×—
P/B0.3×0.5×0.7×0.6×0.8×
P/S0.2×0.3×0.4×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Lumens Bios—0.2×0.2×—0.0%
SK hynix6.0×3.7×5.2×—0.2%
DB HiTek11.9×1.7×2.7×—0.9%
Fadu—37.7×13.2×—0.0%
Hana Micron13.8×4.3×1.1×—0.2%
Jeju Semiconductor9.5×4.9×3.3×—0.0%
SFA Semicon—3.0×3.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)10.7×4.0×3.2×—0.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Lumens Bios / 루멘스바이오스 / 038060 / KRX:038060

Source: KRX statistical information