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OSCOTECInc

039200 · KOSDAQ · ₩039200 · 오스코텍

₩35,900▼ ₩100 (0.28%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩704B
Equity value
−₩691B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩35,900, the model needs an operating margin of 41.5% every year (it uses −20.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −719.9% to 52.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 31% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 25%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (170.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (170.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 14%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (170.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (170.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (170.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 13.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩144B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩21B
− Minority interests
₩8.2B
Shares
38,258,176
Share price
₩35,900
Market cap
₩1.4T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩5B₩34B₩100B₩180B₩215B₩246B₩266B₩274B
Growth−2.2%586.9%193.6%25.0%19.5%14.0%8.5%3.0%
EBIT−₩33B−₩2.7B₩52B−₩36B−₩43B−₩49B−₩53B−₩55B
EBIT margin−659.6%−8.0%52.2%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩24B−₩2B₩38B−₩26B−₩31B−₩36B−₩39B−₩40B
+ Depreciation₩1.7B₩1.8B₩1.5B₩25B₩30B₩34B₩36B₩38B
− Capital spending———₩7.2B₩8.6B₩9.8B₩11B₩11B
− Working capital−₩28B₩41B₩53B₩14B₩14B₩12B₩8.3B₩3.2B
Free cash flow———−₩23B−₩24B−₩24B−₩21B−₩16B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7530.702
Present value———−₩21B−₩21B−₩19B−₩16B−₩11B

Terminal value −₩875B, worth −₩614B today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,644 a share)Now 6.36×₩37,3646.62×₩66,25211.7×₩204,09936.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%—————
6.8%—————
7.3%—————
7.8%—————
8.3%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.4T
Enterprise value
₩1.4T
P/E
14.6×
P/B
6.4×
P/S
9.5×
EV/EBITDA
14.9×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩45,200₩24,350₩23,050₩17,300₩36,600
Market cap₩1.7T₩932B₩882B₩662B₩1.4T
P/E33.0×1,062.8×———
P/B9.5×7.3×8.9×5.4×48.6×
P/S17.3×27.4×178.1×130.7×358.8×
EV/EBITDA32.3×————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
OSCOTECInc14.6×6.4×9.5×14.9×0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.1×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.8×2.4×8.9×—0.0%
Alteogen78.8×28.4×59.9×—0.1%
Yuhan24.8×2.5×2.6×32.5×0.8%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.6×5.7×6.8×—0.0%
HLB—15.4×54.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.8×6.7×11.5×32.5×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: OSCOTECInc / 오스코텍 / 039200 / KRX:039200

Source: KRX statistical information