HDC LabsHDC랩스
039570 · KOSPI · ₩039570 · HDC랩스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩9,440
vs the current price (₩7,140)
- Enterprise value
- ₩150B
- Equity value
- ₩245B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩3,140
- −56.0%
- Base
- ₩9,440
- +32.2%
- Bull
- ₩21,086
- +195.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).
Revenue growth
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 7.2%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩616B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩73B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩21B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 25,957,601
- Share price
- ₩7,140
- Market cap
- ₩185B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩606B | ₩629B | ₩646B | ₩627B | ₩641B | ₩657B | ₩674B | ₩694B |
| Growth | −0.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩11B | ₩6.4B | ₩11B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩14B |
| EBIT margin | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩7.6B | ₩4.6B | ₩7.7B | ₩9.1B | ₩9.3B | ₩9.5B | ₩9.8B | ₩10B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩2.5B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.8B |
| − Capital spending | ₩4B | ₩2.1B | ₩2.3B | ₩3.1B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.3B | ₩3.4B | ₩3.5B |
| − Working capital | −₩80B | ₩15B | −₩52B | ₩842M | ₩994M | ₩1.1B | ₩1.3B | ₩1.5B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩7.6B | ₩7.7B | ₩7.8B | ₩7.8B | ₩7.9B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩7.1B | ₩6.7B | ₩6.3B | ₩5.9B | ₩5.6B |
Terminal value ₩169B, worth ₩119B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩10,392 a share)Now 0.69× | ₩7,8600.76× | ₩8,6580.83× | ₩10,4021.00× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩737 a share)Now 9.69× | ₩7,52910.2× | ₩12,60017.1× | ₩16,87822.9× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩383 a share)Now 18.6× | ₩3,91710.2× | ₩6,55517.1× | ₩8,78022.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩9,916 | ₩10,315 | ₩10,805 | ₩11,423 | ₩12,224 |
| 6.8% | ₩9,361 | ₩9,674 | ₩10,052 | ₩10,515 | ₩11,098 |
| 7.3% | ₩8,894 | ₩9,144 | ₩9,440 | ₩9,796 | ₩10,233 |
| 7.8% | ₩8,496 | ₩8,698 | ₩8,934 | ₩9,213 | ₩9,549 |
| 8.3% | ₩8,153 | ₩8,318 | ₩8,509 | ₩8,730 | ₩8,993 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩185B
- Enterprise value
- ₩110B
- P/E
- 9.7×
- P/B
- 0.7×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 6.3%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩8,440 | ₩8,610 | ₩7,450 | ₩7,600 | ₩12,200 |
| Market cap | ₩219B | ₩223B | ₩193B | ₩197B | ₩317B |
| P/E | 17.9× | 11.8× | 14.7× | 15.9× | 34.8× |
| P/B | 0.8× | 0.8× | 0.7× | 0.8× | 1.2× |
| P/S | 0.3× | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.3× | 1.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 5.3% | 5.2% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDC Labs | 9.7× | 0.7× | 0.3× | — | 6.3% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction | 20.8× | 1.0× | 0.3× | — | 1.0% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction | — | 1.2× | 0.6× | — | 0.0% |
| GS Engineering & Construction | 17.1× | 0.5× | 0.2× | — | 1.9% |
| DL E&C | 3.4× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 1.6% |
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering | 14.3× | 1.4× | 1.1× | 8.0× | 0.0% |
| Ipark Hyundai Development | 8.6× | 0.5× | 0.4× | — | 2.9% |
| Similar companies (median) | 14.3× | 0.7× | 0.4× | 8.0× | 1.3% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HDC Labs / HDC랩스 / 039570 / KRX:039570
Source: KRX statistical information