HDC Labs

039570 · KOSPI · ₩039570 · HDC랩스

₩7,140▼ ₩130 (1.79%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩9,440

vs the current price (₩7,140)

Enterprise value
₩150B
Equity value
₩245B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,140
−56.0%
Base
₩9,440
+32.2%
Bull
₩21,086
+195.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.5%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 7.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩616B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩73B
+ Stakes and investments
₩21B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
25,957,601
Share price
₩7,140
Market cap
₩185B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩606B₩629B₩646B₩627B₩641B₩657B₩674B₩694B
Growth−0.7%3.7%2.7%1.9%2.2%2.4%2.7%3.0%
EBIT₩11B₩6.4B₩11B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩14B
EBIT margin1.7%1.0%1.6%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
After-tax EBIT₩7.6B₩4.6B₩7.7B₩9.1B₩9.3B₩9.5B₩9.8B₩10B
+ Depreciation———₩2.5B₩2.6B₩2.6B₩2.7B₩2.8B
− Capital spending₩4B₩2.1B₩2.3B₩3.1B₩3.2B₩3.3B₩3.4B₩3.5B
− Working capital−₩80B₩15B−₩52B₩842M₩994M₩1.1B₩1.3B₩1.5B
Free cash flow———₩7.6B₩7.7B₩7.8B₩7.8B₩7.9B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩7.1B₩6.7B₩6.3B₩5.9B₩5.6B

Terminal value ₩169B, worth ₩119B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,392 a share)Now 0.69×₩7,8600.76×₩8,6580.83×₩10,4021.00×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩737 a share)Now 9.69×₩7,52910.2×₩12,60017.1×₩16,87822.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩383 a share)Now 18.6×₩3,91710.2×₩6,55517.1×₩8,78022.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩9,916₩10,315₩10,805₩11,423₩12,224
6.8%₩9,361₩9,674₩10,052₩10,515₩11,098
7.3%₩8,894₩9,144₩9,440₩9,796₩10,233
7.8%₩8,496₩8,698₩8,934₩9,213₩9,549
8.3%₩8,153₩8,318₩8,509₩8,730₩8,993

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩185B
Enterprise value
₩110B
P/E
9.7×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.3%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩8,440₩8,610₩7,450₩7,600₩12,200
Market cap₩219B₩223B₩193B₩197B₩317B
P/E17.9×11.8×14.7×15.9×34.8×
P/B0.8×0.8×0.7×0.8×1.2×
P/S0.3×0.4×0.3×0.3×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.3%5.2%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HDC Labs9.7×0.7×0.3×—6.3%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction20.8×1.0×0.3×—1.0%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction—1.2×0.6×—0.0%
GS Engineering & Construction17.1×0.5×0.2×—1.9%
DL E&C3.4×0.4×0.3×—1.6%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering14.3×1.4×1.1×8.0×0.0%
Ipark Hyundai Development8.6×0.5×0.4×—2.9%
Similar companies (median)14.3×0.7×0.4×8.0×1.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HDC Labs / HDC랩스 / 039570 / KRX:039570

Source: KRX statistical information