KOSDAQ · 039610 · Machinery · ₩039610

HS Valve화성밸브

039610 · KOSDAQ · ₩039610 · 화성밸브

₩5,990▼ ₩90 (1.48%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,074

vs the current price (₩5,990)

Enterprise value: ₩28B
Equity value: ₩32B
WACC: 7.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 49% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩5,990, the model needs an operating margin of 6.2% every year (it uses 3.7%).
Margins ranged from −2.0% to 11.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
Today's P/E is 153.2× against a typical 17.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩1,073; −82.1%
Base: ₩3,074; −48.7%
Bull: ₩7,041; +17.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.7%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 1-1.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 2-0.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 30.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 41.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin3.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending3.2%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.27, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩86B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩6.3B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩11B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 10,410,400
Share price: ₩5,990
Market cap: ₩62B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩92B	₩91B	₩81B	₩85B	₩85B	₩85B	₩87B	₩89B
Growth	7.0%	−0.3%	−10.8%	−1.6%	−0.5%	0.7%	1.8%	3.0%
EBIT	₩10B	₩8B	−₩1.6B	₩3.1B	₩3.1B	₩3.2B	₩3.2B	₩3.3B
EBIT margin	11.0%	8.7%	−2.0%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%	3.7%
After-tax EBIT	₩7.3B	₩5.8B	−₩1.2B	₩2.3B	₩2.3B	₩2.3B	₩2.3B	₩2.4B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩2.2B	₩2.2B	₩2.2B	₩2.3B	₩2.3B
− Capital spending	₩4.8B	₩2.8B	₩1.1B	₩2.7B	₩2.7B	₩2.7B	₩2.8B	₩2.9B
− Working capital	₩4.6B	₩2.4B	−₩6.5B	−₩553M	−₩170M	₩237M	₩613M	₩1B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩2.3B	₩1.9B	₩1.5B	₩1.2B	₩819M
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.935	0.873	0.816	0.763	0.713
Present value	—	—	—	₩2.2B	₩1.7B	₩1.3B	₩910M	₩584M

Terminal value ₩30B, worth ₩21B today: 76% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩9,341 a share)Now 0.64×	₩5,8040.62×	₩7,2240.77×	₩10,7791.15×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩39 a share)Now 153.2×	₩40710.4×	₩66417.0×	₩87422.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩824 a share)Now 7.27×	₩8,57010.4×	₩13,99917.0×	₩18,41622.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.0%	₩3,683	₩3,699	₩3,716	₩3,734	₩3,754
6.5%	₩3,382	₩3,373	₩3,359	₩3,339	₩3,309
7.0%	₩3,132	₩3,107	₩3,074	₩3,031	₩2,975
7.5%	₩2,921	₩2,885	₩2,841	₩2,785	₩2,715
8.0%	₩2,740	₩2,698	₩2,646	₩2,584	₩2,506

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩62B
Enterprise value: ₩69B
P/E: 153.2×
P/B: 0.6×
P/S: 0.7×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩8,120	₩7,390	₩5,530	₩4,685	₩5,650
Market cap	₩85B	₩77B	₩58B	₩49B	₩59B
P/E	—	10.8×	7.1×	16.4×	24.6×
P/B	0.9×	0.8×	0.7×	0.6×	0.8×
P/S	1.0×	0.8×	0.6×	0.6×	0.8×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
HS Valve	153.2×	0.6×	0.7×	—	0.0%
Doosan Enerbility	193.9×	4.3×	2.0×	—	0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor	78.4×	23.3×	31.6×	70.6×	0.4%
Jusung Engineering	1,058.2×	13.0×	34.0×	2,036.0×	0.0%
Rainbow Robotics	4,137.6×	53.0×	156.2×	—	0.0%
EO Technics	44.1×	6.4×	10.8×	—	0.0%
Doosan Bobcat	13,622.5×	911.6×	733.9×	—	3.5%
Similar companies (median)	626.0×	18.1×	32.8×	1,053.3×	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HS Valve / 화성밸브 / 039610 / KRX:039610

Source: KRX statistical information