Cafe24카페24
042000 · KOSDAQ · ₩042000 · 카페24
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩14,206
vs the current price (₩17,140)
- Enterprise value
- ₩160B
- Equity value
- ₩343B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩9,363
- −45.4%
- Base
- ₩14,206
- −17.1%
- Bull
- ₩22,710
- +32.5%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.5%).
Revenue growth
- 4.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 3.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 3.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.4, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩323B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩184B
- Shares
- 24,178,169
- Share price
- ₩17,140
- Market cap
- ₩414B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩278B | ₩302B | ₩315B | ₩336B | ₩349B | ₩361B | ₩373B | ₩384B |
| Growth | −0.4% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩3.1B | ₩32B | ₩40B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩13B | ₩13B |
| EBIT margin | −1.1% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩2.3B | ₩23B | ₩29B | ₩8.5B | ₩8.9B | ₩9.2B | ₩9.5B | ₩9.8B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩8.7B | ₩9.1B | ₩9.4B | ₩9.7B | ₩10B |
| − Capital spending | ₩9.3B | ₩6.3B | ₩14B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩13B |
| − Working capital | −₩41B | ₩4.3B | ₩278M | −₩1.3B | −₩1.3B | −₩1.2B | −₩1.2B | −₩1.1B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩7.5B | ₩7.7B | ₩7.9B | ₩8B | ₩8.2B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩7B | ₩6.7B | ₩6.4B | ₩6.1B | ₩5.7B |
Terminal value ₩182B, worth ₩128B today: 80% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩11,059 a share)Now 1.55× | ₩16,2961.47× | ₩26,0622.36× | ₩55,9185.06× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,484 a share)Now 11.5× | ₩16,99011.4× | ₩36,75224.8× | ₩82,70355.7× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,461 a share)Now 11.7× | ₩16,72711.4× | ₩36,18424.8× | ₩81,42355.7× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩14,220 | ₩14,917 | ₩15,775 | ₩16,860 | ₩18,272 |
| 6.8% | ₩13,638 | ₩14,214 | ₩14,909 | ₩15,767 | ₩16,849 |
| 7.3% | ₩13,149 | ₩13,632 | ₩14,206 | ₩14,900 | ₩15,756 |
| 7.8% | ₩12,732 | ₩13,142 | ₩13,624 | ₩14,197 | ₩14,890 |
| 8.3% | ₩12,371 | ₩12,724 | ₩13,134 | ₩13,615 | ₩14,187 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩414B
- Enterprise value
- ₩231B
- P/E
- 11.5×
- P/B
- 1.5×
- P/S
- 1.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩30,150 | ₩33,900 | ₩28,000 | ₩9,860 | ₩27,400 |
| Market cap | ₩729B | ₩820B | ₩677B | ₩238B | ₩662B |
| P/E | 18.7× | 31.8× | 341.3× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.7× | 3.8× | 4.0× | 1.6× | 2.8× |
| P/S | 2.3× | 2.7× | 2.4× | 0.9× | 2.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cafe24 | 11.5× | 1.5× | 1.3× | — | 0.0% |
| NAVER | 13.1× | 0.9× | 2.0× | — | 1.5% |
| Kakao | 37.7× | 1.1× | 1.6× | — | 0.3% |
| Daou Technology | 1.9× | 0.4× | 0.0× | — | 5.6% |
| NICE Information Service | 11.3× | 2.0× | 1.6× | 6.6× | 3.0% |
| Kinx | 24.4× | 2.7× | 3.5× | 10.7× | 0.5% |
| Refine | 24.6× | 1.1× | 4.1× | — | 1.9% |
| Similar companies (median) | 18.7× | 1.1× | 1.8× | 6.6× | 1.7% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Cafe24 / 카페24 / 042000 / KRX:042000
Source: KRX statistical information