KT Genie MusicKT지니뮤직
043610 · KOSDAQ · ₩043610 · KT지니뮤직
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩10,836
vs the current price (₩4,480)
- Enterprise value
- ₩166B
- Equity value
- ₩126B
- WACC
- 7.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 142% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩4,480, the model needs an operating margin of 2.8% every year (it uses 4.6%).
- Or revenue growth −17.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩2,215
- −50.6%
- Base
- ₩10,836
- +141.9%
- Bull
- ₩25,865
- +477.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.6%).
Revenue growth
- 1.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 2.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (1.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 4.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 1.7%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 11.7%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.67
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.51, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩312B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩24B
- − Minority interests
- ₩64B
- Shares
- 11,623,087
- Share price
- ₩4,480
- Market cap
- ₩52B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩307B | ₩302B | ₩303B | ₩318B | ₩325B | ₩334B | ₩343B | ₩353B |
| Growth | 7.3% | −1.8% | 0.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩15B | ₩12B | ₩16B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩16B |
| EBIT margin | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩11B | ₩8.8B | ₩12B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩12B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩4.5B | ₩4.6B | ₩4.7B | ₩4.8B | ₩4.9B |
| − Capital spending | ₩3.8B | ₩5.5B | ₩6.6B | ₩5.4B | ₩5.5B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.8B | ₩6B |
| − Working capital | −₩13B | ₩14B | ₩18B | ₩695M | ₩820M | ₩952M | ₩1.1B | ₩1.2B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩9B | ₩9.1B | ₩9.2B | ₩9.3B | ₩9.5B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.929 | 0.862 | 0.801 | 0.743 | 0.690 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩8.3B | ₩7.8B | ₩7.3B | ₩6.9B | ₩6.6B |
Terminal value ₩187B, worth ₩129B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩12,312 a share)Now 0.36× | ₩7,6180.62× | ₩12,5121.02× | ₩21,7081.76× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | ₩11,795 | ₩12,764 | ₩13,936 | ₩15,384 | ₩17,221 |
| 7.2% | ₩10,529 | ₩11,308 | ₩12,236 | ₩13,359 | ₩14,746 |
| 7.7% | ₩9,452 | ₩10,089 | ₩10,836 | ₩11,724 | ₩12,799 |
| 8.2% | ₩8,526 | ₩9,053 | ₩9,662 | ₩10,377 | ₩11,227 |
| 8.7% | ₩7,721 | ₩8,161 | ₩8,664 | ₩9,247 | ₩9,931 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩52B
- Enterprise value
- ₩28B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.2×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩9,379 | ₩10,485 | ₩17,166 | ₩17,066 | ₩28,226 |
| Market cap | ₩109B | ₩122B | ₩200B | ₩198B | ₩328B |
| P/E | — | — | 14.4× | 11.3× | — |
| P/B | 0.8× | 0.7× | 1.1× | 1.3× | 2.4× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.6× | 0.7× | 1.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KT Genie Music | — | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| CJ ENM | — | 0.3× | 0.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Seoul Broadcasting System | 109.3× | 0.2× | 0.2× | — | 3.0% |
| KT Skylife | 73.5× | 0.3× | 0.2× | — | 9.5% |
| Mega Study | 5.3× | 0.5× | 1.3× | — | 10.1% |
| LG HelloVision | — | 0.2× | 0.1× | 3.1× | 0.0% |
| The Korea Economic Broadcasting | 17.9× | 0.7× | 1.1× | — | 3.3% |
| Similar companies (median) | 45.7× | 0.3× | 0.2× | 3.1× | 3.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: KT Genie Music / KT지니뮤직 / 043610 / KRX:043610
Source: KRX statistical information