Ask Warren

Taewoong

044490 · KOSDAQ · ₩044490 · 태웅

₩23,600▼ ₩1,850 (7.27%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩514

vs the current price (₩23,600)

Enterprise value
₩55B
Equity value
₩10B
WACC
8.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 98% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩23,600, the model needs an operating margin of 14.4% every year (it uses 2.6%).
  • Margins ranged from 0.7% to 8.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 48% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 63.8× against a typical 26.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩514
−97.8%
Bull
₩5,575
−76.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.83

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.75, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩371B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩46B
+ Stakes and investments
₩583M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
20,007,381
Share price
₩23,600
Market cap
₩472B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩444B₩386B₩350B₩356B₩348B₩347B₩352B₩362B
Growth12.7%−12.9%−9.5%−3.9%−2.2%−0.4%1.3%3.0%
EBIT₩40B₩23B₩5B₩9.3B₩9.1B₩9B₩9.1B₩9.4B
EBIT margin8.9%5.9%1.4%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%2.6%
After-tax EBIT₩29B₩17B₩3.6B₩6.7B₩6.6B₩6.5B₩6.6B₩6.8B
+ Depreciation₩20B₩20B₩19B₩18B₩17B₩17B₩18B₩18B
− Capital spending₩8.5B₩23B₩23B₩17B₩17B₩17B₩17B₩18B
− Working capital₩29B−₩24B−₩16B−₩5.8B−₩3.1B−₩558M₩1.8B₩4.2B
Free cash flow₩11B₩37B₩16B₩13B₩10B₩7.4B₩5.2B₩3B
Discount factor———0.9240.8540.7890.7290.673
Present value———₩12B₩8.6B₩5.9B₩3.8B₩2B

Terminal value ₩35B, worth ₩23B today: 42% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩30,879 a share)Now 0.76×₩13,0560.42×₩19,0570.62×₩35,9461.16×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩370 a share)Now 63.8×₩3,4279.26×₩9,83626.6×₩24,89767.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩7 a share)Now 3370.2×₩659.26×₩18626.6×₩47167.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.2%₩1,417₩1,154₩836₩445—
7.7%₩1,206₩958₩662₩305—
8.2%₩1,023₩789₩514₩186—
8.7%₩863₩643₩386₩85—
9.2%₩721₩514₩275——

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩472B
Enterprise value
₩518B
P/E
63.8×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
1.3×
EV/EBITDA
20.4×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩25,750₩11,890₩16,990₩9,800₩11,000
Market cap₩515B₩238B₩340B₩196B₩220B
P/E95.1×9.6×10.0×358.2×30.8×
P/B0.8×0.4×0.7×0.4×0.5×
P/S1.5×0.6×0.8×0.5×0.7×
EV/EBITDA23.7×7.2×7.6×14.4×16.2×
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Taewoong63.8×0.8×1.3×20.4×0.0%
CS Wind372.3×1.3×0.6×—2.6%
Hankuk Carbon7.8×1.2×0.9×—2.1%
YG-15.3×0.8×0.5×—1.8%
Bosung Power Technology18.9×2.1×1.8×8.6×0.0%
Hansun Engineering36.1×2.6×3.0×14.4×0.0%
HT Robotics41.8×3.0×2.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.5×1.7×1.4×11.5×0.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Taewoong / 태웅 / 044490 / KRX:044490

Source: KRX statistical information