HK에이치케이
044780 · KOSDAQ · ₩044780 · 에이치케이
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,489
vs the current price (₩1,140)
- Enterprise value
- ₩5.1B
- Equity value
- ₩28B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩1,165
- +2.2%
- Base
- ₩1,489
- +30.6%
- Bull
- ₩2,187
- +91.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.0%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 0.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩52B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩2.4B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩20B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 18,505,787
- Share price
- ₩1,140
- Market cap
- ₩21B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩67B | ₩54B | ₩54B | ₩47B | ₩44B | ₩42B | ₩42B | ₩43B |
| Growth | −18.1% | −18.9% | 0.3% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩842M | −₩2.6B | −₩387M | ₩469M | ₩438M | ₩423M | ₩422M | ₩434M |
| EBIT margin | 1.3% | −4.9% | −0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩610M | −₩1.9B | −₩281M | ₩340M | ₩317M | ₩306M | ₩306M | ₩315M |
| + Depreciation | ₩1.2B | ₩1.3B | ₩1.2B | ₩1B | ₩963M | ₩930M | ₩928M | ₩956M |
| − Capital spending | ₩338M | ₩820M | ₩410M | ₩422M | ₩394M | ₩380M | ₩380M | ₩391M |
| − Working capital | ₩9.2B | −₩16B | ₩10B | −₩2.1B | −₩1.3B | −₩613M | −₩34M | ₩506M |
| Free cash flow | −₩7.7B | ₩15B | −₩9.7B | ₩3B | ₩2.1B | ₩1.5B | ₩888M | ₩374M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩2.8B | ₩1.9B | ₩1.2B | ₩670M | ₩263M |
Terminal value −₩2.5B, worth −₩1.7B today: -34% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,881 a share)Now 0.29× | ₩1,4180.37× | ₩1,8140.47× | ₩2,7860.72× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩737 a share)Now 1.55× | ₩2,9063.94× | ₩5,8777.98× | ₩12,85917.5× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,712 a share)Now 0.67× | ₩6,7523.94× | ₩13,6567.98× | ₩29,87917.5× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩1,624 | ₩1,555 | ₩1,469 | ₩1,359 | ₩1,216 |
| 6.8% | ₩1,617 | ₩1,556 | ₩1,481 | ₩1,387 | ₩1,269 |
| 7.3% | ₩1,610 | ₩1,555 | ₩1,489 | ₩1,409 | ₩1,308 |
| 7.8% | ₩1,604 | ₩1,554 | ₩1,496 | ₩1,425 | ₩1,339 |
| 8.3% | ₩1,598 | ₩1,553 | ₩1,500 | ₩1,438 | ₩1,363 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩21B
- Enterprise value
- ₩19B
- P/E
- 1.5×
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩1,350 | ₩1,142 | ₩1,811 | ₩1,945 | ₩2,120 |
| Market cap | ₩25B | ₩21B | ₩34B | ₩36B | ₩39B |
| P/E | 5.5× | — | 17.7× | 8.4× | 7.2× |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.6× | 0.6× | 0.7× |
| P/S | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.4× | 0.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.5× | — | 21.3× | 5.6× | 6.8× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HK | 1.5× | 0.3× | 0.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Enerbility | 193.9× | 4.3× | 2.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 78.4× | 23.3× | 31.6× | 70.6× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,058.2× | 13.0× | 34.0× | 2,036.0× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,137.6× | 53.0× | 156.2× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 44.1× | 6.4× | 10.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Bobcat | 13,622.5× | 911.6× | 733.9× | — | 3.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 626.0× | 18.1× | 32.8× | 1,053.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HK / 에이치케이 / 044780 / KRX:044780
Source: KRX statistical information