Ask Warren

Zungwon En-Sys

045510 · KOSDAQ · ₩045510 · 정원엔시스

₩1,103▼ ₩35 (3.08%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩329

vs the current price (₩1,103)

Enterprise value
₩28B
Equity value
₩10B
WACC
6.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 70% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,103, the model needs an operating margin of 1.5% every year (it uses 1.0%).
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
  • Today's P/E is 15.0× against a typical 22.1× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩329
−70.2%
Bull
₩5,448
+393.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 6.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 11.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.01, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩250B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩17B
+ Stakes and investments
₩3M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
31,479,957
Share price
₩1,103
Market cap
₩35B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩180B₩194B₩201B₩267B₩281B₩295B₩307B₩316B
Growth8.1%8.2%3.3%6.5%5.6%4.8%3.9%3.0%
EBIT₩2.8B₩1.6B₩1.9B₩2.7B₩2.8B₩3B₩3.1B₩3.2B
EBIT margin1.6%0.8%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.0%
After-tax EBIT₩2.1B₩1.1B₩1.4B₩1.9B₩2B₩2.1B₩2.2B₩2.3B
+ Depreciation———₩800M₩844M₩885M₩920M₩947M
− Capital spending₩305M₩1.3B₩462M₩1.1B₩1.1B₩1.2B₩1.2B₩1.3B
− Working capital−₩7.7B₩14B−₩17B₩1.9B₩1.7B₩1.6B₩1.3B₩1.1B
Free cash flow———−₩205M₩43M₩290M₩593M₩916M
Discount factor———0.9420.8860.8350.7860.740
Present value———−₩193M₩38M₩242M₩466M₩678M

Terminal value ₩36B, worth ₩26B today: 96% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,491 a share)Now 0.74×₩8750.59×₩1,3190.88×₩2,2741.52×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩74 a share)Now 15.0×₩1,13615.4×₩1,62722.1×₩3,95353.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩143 a share)Now 7.72×₩2,20515.4×₩3,15922.1×₩7,67353.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.2%₩577₩607₩644₩693₩763
5.7%₩438₩451₩465₩482₩504
6.2%₩327₩328₩329₩328₩326
6.7%₩235₩230₩222₩211₩196
7.2%₩159₩149₩136₩119₩97

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩35B
Enterprise value
₩52B
P/E
15.0×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩894₩734₩1,290₩1,290₩2,485
Market cap₩28B₩23B₩41B₩41B₩78B
P/E25.0×24.4×23.9×33.9×96.3×
P/B0.6×0.5×0.9×1.0×1.9×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.2×0.2×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Zungwon En-Sys15.0×0.7×0.1×—0.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.5×1.2×0.3×—3.8%
ISC45.4×6.1×12.7×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies19.2×1.6×5.1×—4.1%
Shinsegae13.9×0.4×0.3×—2.1%
Similar companies (median)16.3×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Zungwon En-Sys / 정원엔시스 / 045510 / KRX:045510

Source: KRX statistical information