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KG Financial

046440 · KOSDAQ · ₩046440 · KG파이낸셜

₩3,825▼ ₩55 (1.42%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩13,355

vs the current price (₩3,825)

Enterprise value
₩365B
Equity value
₩484B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 249% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,825, the model needs an operating margin of 1.6% every year (it uses 13.6%).
  • Margins ranged from 2.8% to 15.5% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 6.0× against a typical 8.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩9,871
+158.1%
Base
₩13,355
+249.2%
Bull
₩19,313
+404.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (13.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-5.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 13.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩241B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩113B
+ Stakes and investments
₩10B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩4.2B
Shares
36,250,386
Share price
₩3,825
Market cap
₩139B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩280B₩266B₩234B₩228B₩221B₩218B₩220B₩227B
Growth1.3%−4.8%−12.2%−5.4%−3.3%−1.2%0.9%3.0%
EBIT₩33B₩7.4B₩33B₩31B₩30B₩30B₩30B₩31B
EBIT margin11.8%2.8%14.2%13.6%13.6%13.6%13.6%13.6%
After-tax EBIT₩24B₩5.4B₩24B₩22B₩22B₩21B₩22B₩22B
+ Depreciation———₩3.2B₩3.1B₩3.1B₩3.1B₩3.2B
− Capital spending₩4.2B₩3.1B₩5.8B₩3.9B₩3.8B₩3.7B₩3.7B₩3.9B
− Working capital₩61B₩3B₩24B−₩5.2B−₩3B−₩1.1B₩785M₩2.6B
Free cash flow———₩27B₩24B₩22B₩20B₩19B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩25B₩21B₩18B₩15B₩13B

Terminal value ₩388B, worth ₩273B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩9,854 a share)Now 0.39×₩4,2150.43×₩5,6550.57×₩10,4121.06×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩638 a share)Now 5.99×₩2,4783.88×₩5,4858.59×₩10,05815.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩732 a share)Now 5.23×₩2,8413.88×₩6,2878.59×₩11,52915.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩14,054₩14,753₩15,612₩16,694₩18,101
6.8%₩13,146₩13,699₩14,366₩15,186₩16,219
7.3%₩12,381₩12,827₩13,355₩13,991₩14,773
7.8%₩11,729₩12,092₩12,518₩13,021₩13,627
8.3%₩11,165₩11,466₩11,812₩12,217₩12,697

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩139B
Enterprise value
₩24B
P/E
6.0×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
6.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,700₩4,745₩5,460₩5,640₩12,200
Market cap₩170B₩172B₩198B₩204B₩442B
P/E7.3×17.7×4.5×7.3×15.2×
P/B0.5×0.5×0.6×0.7×1.5×
P/S0.7×0.6×0.7×0.7×1.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield5.3%4.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
KG Financial6.0×0.4×0.6×—6.5%
Krafton10.0×1.2×1.9×—1.2%
Hyundai Autoever41.5×4.2×1.7×—0.7%
NC7.0×1.2×2.1×8.5×0.6%
Netmarble7.1×0.5×1.0×—2.6%
PearlAbyss8.1×2.1×3.0×5.3×0.0%
Shift UP9.0×1.8×7.1×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)8.5×1.5×2.0×6.9×0.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: KG Financial / KG파이낸셜 / 046440 / KRX:046440

Source: KRX statistical information