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HLB Pharmaceutical

047920 · KOSDAQ · ₩047920 · HLB제약

₩9,950▲ ₩60 (0.61%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩136B
Equity value
−₩127B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩9,950, the model needs an operating margin of 8.8% every year (it uses −1.0%).
  • Margins ranged from −14.4% to 1.1% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 51% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−1.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 24.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 18.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 13.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.26, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩252B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩893M
+ Stakes and investments
₩10B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
43,561,688
Share price
₩9,950
Market cap
₩433B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩136B₩137B₩206B₩313B₩371B₩422B₩457B₩471B
Growth26.5%0.8%50.0%24.1%18.8%13.6%8.3%3.0%
EBIT−₩20B₩1.5B₩1.1B−₩3.1B−₩3.7B−₩4.2B−₩4.6B−₩4.7B
EBIT margin−14.4%1.1%0.5%−1.0%−1.0%−1.0%−1.0%−1.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩14B₩1.1B₩771M−₩2.3B−₩2.7B−₩3.1B−₩3.3B−₩3.4B
+ Depreciation———₩7.5B₩8.9B₩10B₩11B₩11B
− Capital spending₩4.3B₩3.1B₩7.2B₩9.4B₩11B₩13B₩14B₩14B
− Working capital₩13B−₩16B₩12B₩11B₩10B₩8.9B₩6.2B₩2.4B
Free cash flow———−₩15B−₩15B−₩14B−₩12B−₩8.6B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.701
Present value———−₩14B−₩13B−₩12B−₩9.2B−₩6.1B

Terminal value −₩118B, worth −₩82B today: 60% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,002 a share)Now 3.31×₩13,2464.41×₩19,0086.33×₩28,4339.47×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%—————
6.9%—————
7.4%—————
7.9%—————
8.4%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩433B
Enterprise value
₩429B
P/E
157.2×
P/B
3.3×
P/S
1.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩14,781₩22,209₩14,017₩9,768₩12,441
Market cap₩644B₩967B₩611B₩426B₩542B
P/E140.8×479.0×———
P/B5.1×8.3×6.9×5.0×6.9×
P/S3.1×7.1×4.5×4.0×8.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
HLB Pharmaceutical157.2×3.3×1.7×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.0×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen80.5×29.0×61.2×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.7×5.8×6.8×—0.0%
Yuhan24.0×2.4×2.5×31.3×0.8%
HLB—15.7×55.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.7×11.5×31.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: HLB Pharmaceutical / HLB제약 / 047920 / KRX:047920

Source: KRX statistical information