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Hyundai Bioscience

048410 · KOSDAQ · ₩048410 · 현대바이오

₩5,820▼ ₩120 (2.02%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩372

vs the current price (₩5,820)

Enterprise value
−₩13B
Equity value
₩36B
WACC
9.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 94% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • No operating margin up to 90% gets the model to today's price at these growth assumptions.
  • Margins ranged from −516.3% to 5.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩397
−93.2%
Base
₩372
−93.6%
Bull
₩339
−94.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−20.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -20%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 144.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 180.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 25.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.03%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.

  • 0.93

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.9, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.53%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩3.3B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩21B
+ Stakes and investments
₩28B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
96,505,572
Share price
₩5,820
Market cap
₩562B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩9.5B₩15B₩3.5B₩3B₩2.8B₩2.7B₩2.7B₩2.8B
Growth20.8%58.7%−76.6%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT−₩9.8B₩791M−₩18B−₩598M−₩558M−₩538M−₩537M−₩553M
EBIT margin−103.2%5.3%−516.3%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%−20.0%
After-tax EBIT−₩7.1B₩573M−₩13B−₩433M−₩404M−₩390M−₩389M−₩401M
+ Depreciation———₩4.3B₩4B₩3.9B₩3.9B₩4B
− Capital spending₩48M₩0₩19B₩5.4B₩5B₩4.8B₩4.8B₩5B
− Working capital−₩17B−₩305M₩158M−₩84M−₩51M−₩25M−₩1.4M₩20M
Free cash flow———−₩1.4B−₩1.4B−₩1.3B−₩1.4B−₩1.4B
Discount factor———0.9160.8390.7690.7050.646
Present value———−₩1.3B−₩1.1B−₩1B−₩955M−₩915M

Terminal value −₩12B, worth −₩7.5B today: 58% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩1,070 a share)Now 5.44×₩5,2214.88×₩17,27016.1×₩22,92521.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
8.1%₩368₩361₩353₩344₩333
8.6%₩376₩370₩363₩355₩346
9.1%₩383₩378₩372₩365₩357
9.6%₩389₩384₩379₩374₩367
10.1%₩394₩390₩386₩381₩375

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩562B
Enterprise value
₩541B
P/E
—
P/B
5.4×
P/S
169.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,965₩7,055₩12,297₩12,910₩11,897
Market cap₩479B₩681B₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.1T
P/E—————
P/B4.3×17.3×26.2×21.4×18.6×
P/S136.2×45.2×125.2×158.7×124.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Hyundai Bioscience—5.4×169.1×—0.0%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.9%
Hanwha Solutions—0.6×0.4×—0.0%
Hanwha6.2×0.4×0.1×—1.4%
SKC—2.1×2.0×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.7×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.2×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.2×0.4×0.4×8.7×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai Bioscience / 현대바이오 / 048410 / KRX:048410

Source: KRX statistical information