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NPK

048830 · KOSDAQ · ₩048830 · 엔피케이

₩933▲ ₩17 (1.86%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,759

vs the current price (₩933)

Enterprise value
₩22B
Equity value
₩33B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 89% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩933, the model needs an operating margin of 0.9% every year (it uses 2.0%).
  • Today's P/E is 17.0× against a typical 19.5× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩305
−67.4%
Base
₩1,759
+88.5%
Bull
₩4,426
+374.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 8.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 6.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩90B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩11B
Shares
18,723,923
Share price
₩933
Market cap
₩17B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩63B₩65B₩84B₩98B₩105B₩111B₩116B₩120B
Growth−3.4%2.5%29.8%8.7%7.3%5.9%4.4%3.0%
EBIT₩1.9B−₩630M₩1B₩2B₩2.1B₩2.2B₩2.3B₩2.4B
EBIT margin3.0%−1.0%1.2%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
After-tax EBIT₩1.4B−₩457M₩735M₩1.4B₩1.5B₩1.6B₩1.7B₩1.7B
+ Depreciation———₩1.4B₩1.5B₩1.6B₩1.6B₩1.7B
− Capital spending₩269M₩1B₩2.7B₩1.7B₩1.8B₩1.9B₩2B₩2B
− Working capital₩427M₩3.6B₩3.1B₩486M₩443M₩384M₩303M₩216M
Free cash flow———₩640M₩765M₩895M₩1B₩1.2B
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩596M₩663M₩723M₩776M₩812M

Terminal value ₩27B, worth ₩19B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩2,574 a share)Now 0.36×₩1,0440.41×₩1,5940.62×₩2,2910.89×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩55 a share)Now 17.0×₩70712.9×₩1,06819.5×₩1,96535.9×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩171 a share)Now 5.45×₩2,21012.9×₩3,33819.5×₩6,14335.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩1,857₩1,945₩2,053₩2,189₩2,364
6.9%₩1,737₩1,807₩1,891₩1,993₩2,122
7.4%₩1,637₩1,693₩1,759₩1,838₩1,935
7.9%₩1,551₩1,596₩1,649₩1,712₩1,787
8.4%₩1,477₩1,514₩1,557₩1,607₩1,667

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩17B
Enterprise value
₩6.5B
P/E
17.0×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩947₩1,081₩1,877₩1,775₩2,200
Market cap₩18B₩20B₩35B₩33B₩41B
P/E15.7×—20.5×22.5×20.6×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.8×0.8×1.0×
P/S0.2×0.3×0.6×0.5×0.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield3.2%2.8%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
NPK17.0×0.4×0.2×—3.2%
LG Chem—0.5×0.3×—0.8%
Hanwha Solutions—0.6×0.4×—0.0%
Hanwha6.3×0.4×0.1×—1.4%
SKC—2.1×2.0×—0.0%
KCC0.9×0.3×0.5×8.9×0.0%
Kumho Petro Chemical5.3×0.4×0.4×—1.6%
Similar companies (median)5.3×0.4×0.4×8.9×0.4%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: NPK / 엔피케이 / 048830 / KRX:048830

Source: KRX statistical information