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Cellumed

049180 · KOSDAQ · ₩049180 · 셀루메드

₩1,009 ₩0 (0.00%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩51B
Equity value
−₩55B
WACC
8.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,009, the model needs an operating margin of 6.3% every year (it uses −2.6%).
  • Margins ranged from −10.9% to 4.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 79% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−2.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 4.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -2.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 3.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.78

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.68, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩120B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩4.8B
+ Stakes and investments
₩300M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩12M
Shares
83,226,192
Share price
₩1,009
Market cap
₩84B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩96B₩129B₩140B₩125B₩131B₩136B₩141B₩145B
Growth−21.7%35.1%8.6%4.7%4.3%3.9%3.4%3.0%
EBIT−₩10B−₩6.8B−₩5.1B−₩3.3B−₩3.4B−₩3.5B−₩3.7B−₩3.8B
EBIT margin−10.9%−5.3%−3.7%−2.6%−2.6%−2.6%−2.6%−2.6%
After-tax EBIT−₩7.6B−₩5B−₩3.7B−₩2.4B−₩2.5B−₩2.6B−₩2.6B−₩2.7B
+ Depreciation———₩3.1B₩3.3B₩3.4B₩3.5B₩3.6B
− Capital spending₩7.3B₩1.8B₩286M₩3.9B₩4.1B₩4.2B₩4.4B₩4.5B
− Working capital−₩13B−₩26B₩7.4B₩265M₩254M₩240M₩217M₩198M
Free cash flow———−₩3.4B−₩3.5B−₩3.6B−₩3.7B−₩3.8B
Discount factor———0.9250.8550.7910.7310.676
Present value———−₩3.1B−₩3B−₩2.9B−₩2.7B−₩2.6B

Terminal value −₩54B, worth −₩36B today: 72% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩306 a share)Now 3.30×₩1,0763.52×₩2,0856.81×₩3,15310.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.1%—————
7.6%—————
8.1%—————
8.6%—————
9.1%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩84B
Enterprise value
₩88B
P/E
31.4×
P/B
3.3×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,154₩2,540₩2,150₩4,385₩6,700
Market cap₩96B₩211B₩179B₩365B₩558B
P/E————68.2×
P/B11.5×24.1×8.0×6.8×11.6×
P/S0.7×1.6×1.9×3.0×5.6×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Cellumed31.4×3.3×0.7×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics31.9×7.6×13.9×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen79.4×28.6×60.3×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals15.2×6.0×7.1×—0.0%
Yuhan23.2×2.3×2.4×30.2×0.8%
HLB—15.4×54.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.8×11.4×30.2×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Cellumed / 셀루메드 / 049180 / KRX:049180

Source: KRX statistical information