Komelon코메론
049430 · KOSDAQ · ₩049430 · 코메론
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩46,363
vs the current price (₩20,700)
- Enterprise value
- ₩200B
- Equity value
- ₩370B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 124% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩20,700, the model needs an operating margin of 1.3% every year (it uses 22.9%).
- Margins ranged from 12.7% to 27.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- 45% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
- Today's P/E is 5.4× against a typical 4.5× over the last 10 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩38,410
- +85.6%
- Base
- ₩46,363
- +124.0%
- Bull
- ₩59,551
- +187.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (22.9%).
Revenue growth
- -4.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -2.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-4.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 22.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 7.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 38%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.1, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩78B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩124B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩46B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩885,025
- Shares
- 7,988,324
- Share price
- ₩20,700
- Market cap
- ₩165B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩71B | ₩74B | ₩72B | ₩74B | ₩72B | ₩72B | ₩73B | ₩75B |
| Growth | −14.7% | 4.8% | −2.3% | −4.4% | −2.5% | −0.7% | 1.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩9B | ₩20B | ₩18B | ₩17B | ₩17B | ₩16B | ₩17B | ₩17B |
| EBIT margin | 12.7% | 27.0% | 24.9% | 22.9% | 22.9% | 22.9% | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩6.5B | ₩14B | ₩13B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B | ₩12B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩4.5B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.3B | ₩4.4B | ₩4.5B |
| − Capital spending | ₩10B | ₩2.6B | ₩3.5B | ₩5.6B | ₩5.4B | ₩5.4B | ₩5.5B | ₩5.6B |
| − Working capital | −₩11B | −₩22B | ₩4.7B | −₩1.3B | −₩705M | −₩193M | ₩328M | ₩829M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩12B | ₩11B | ₩11B | ₩10B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩12B | ₩10B | ₩8.9B | ₩8B | ₩7.4B |
Terminal value ₩219B, worth ₩154B today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩32,071 a share)Now 0.65× | ₩10,8110.34× | ₩12,4330.39× | ₩19,9080.62× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩3,857 a share)Now 5.37× | ₩13,1593.41× | ₩17,1994.46× | ₩22,9025.94× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩7,190 a share)Now 2.88× | ₩24,5303.41× | ₩32,0604.46× | ₩42,6915.94× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩47,741 | ₩49,712 | ₩52,136 | ₩55,194 | ₩59,173 |
| 6.8% | ₩45,462 | ₩47,043 | ₩48,949 | ₩51,296 | ₩54,255 |
| 7.3% | ₩43,544 | ₩44,834 | ₩46,363 | ₩48,208 | ₩50,479 |
| 7.8% | ₩41,909 | ₩42,975 | ₩44,222 | ₩45,702 | ₩47,487 |
| 8.3% | ₩40,498 | ₩41,389 | ₩42,421 | ₩43,627 | ₩45,059 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩165B
- Enterprise value
- ₩42B
- P/E
- 5.4×
- P/B
- 0.6×
- P/S
- 2.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 3.4%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩13,940 | ₩10,310 | ₩9,130 | ₩9,920 | ₩11,100 |
| Market cap | ₩111B | ₩82B | ₩73B | ₩79B | ₩89B |
| P/E | 4.9× | 3.0× | 4.8× | 5.0× | 4.5× |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.4× | 0.5× |
| P/S | 1.5× | 1.1× | 1.0× | 1.0× | 1.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 5.0% | 2.9% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Komelon / 코메론 / 049430 / KRX:049430
Source: KRX statistical information