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CJ Freshway

051500 · KOSDAQ · ₩051500 · CJ프레시웨이

₩20,300▼ ₩700 (3.33%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩189,057

vs the current price (₩20,300)

Enterprise value
₩2.5T
Equity value
₩2.2T
WACC
5.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 831% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩20,300, the model needs an operating margin of 0.6% every year (it uses 3.0%).
  • Or revenue growth −28.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 5.0× against a typical 6.4× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩24,624
+21.3%
Base
₩189,057
+831.3%
Bull
₩533,117
+2,526.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.0%).

Revenue growth

  • 8.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -5.4%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.07, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩3.6T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩231B
+ Stakes and investments
₩13B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
11,871,586
Share price
₩20,300
Market cap
₩241B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩3.1T₩3.2T₩3.5T₩3.8T₩4.1T₩4.3T₩4.5T₩4.7T
Growth11.9%4.9%7.9%8.2%6.9%5.6%4.3%3.0%
EBIT₩99B₩94B₩102B₩115B₩123B₩130B₩136B₩140B
EBIT margin3.2%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%
After-tax EBIT₩72B₩68B₩74B₩84B₩89B₩94B₩99B₩101B
+ Depreciation———₩58B₩62B₩65B₩68B₩70B
− Capital spending₩63B₩64B₩57B₩73B₩78B₩83B₩86B₩89B
− Working capital−₩70B−₩53B₩16B−₩16B−₩14B−₩12B−₩10B−₩7.3B
Free cash flow———₩84B₩87B₩90B₩91B₩90B
Discount factor———0.9460.8950.8470.8010.758
Present value———₩80B₩78B₩76B₩73B₩68B

Terminal value ₩2.8T, worth ₩2.1T today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩36,444 a share)Now 0.56×₩24,2000.66×₩32,2620.89×₩64,8071.78×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩4,072 a share)Now 4.99×₩18,5844.56×₩26,0786.40×₩51,51912.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,938 a share)Now 5.15×₩17,9724.56×₩25,2206.40×₩49,82312.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.7%₩192,079₩223,702₩267,121₩330,424₩431,282
5.2%₩166,688₩190,567₩221,962₩265,067₩327,913
5.7%₩146,720₩165,351₩189,057₩220,224₩263,016
6.2%₩130,605₩145,521₩164,017₩187,550₩218,490
6.7%₩117,329₩129,519₩144,326₩162,687₩186,048

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩241B
Enterprise value
₩271B
P/E
5.0×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
2.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩26,750₩17,460₩23,850₩32,000₩28,750
Market cap₩318B₩207B₩283B₩380B₩341B
P/E6.3×8.0×4.7×7.3×11.0×
P/B0.7×0.5×1.0×1.2×1.4×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield1.9%2.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
CJ Freshway5.0×0.6×0.1×—2.5%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.5×1.2×0.3×—3.8%
ISC45.4×6.1×12.7×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies19.2×1.6×5.1×—4.1%
Shinsegae13.9×0.4×0.3×—2.1%
Similar companies (median)16.3×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: CJ Freshway / CJ프레시웨이 / 051500 / KRX:051500

Source: KRX statistical information