KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering한전KPS
051600 · KOSPI · ₩051600 · 한전KPS
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩48,838
vs the current price (₩40,500)
- Enterprise value
- ₩2T
- Equity value
- ₩2.2T
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩30,834
- −23.9%
- Base
- ₩48,838
- +20.6%
- Bull
- ₩80,100
- +97.8%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.0%).
Revenue growth
- 3.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (3.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 3.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 3.4%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 36.8%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.17, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.6T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩167B
- − Minority interests
- ₩82M
- Shares
- 45,000,000
- Share price
- ₩40,500
- Market cap
- ₩1.8T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.5T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.7T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T |
| Growth | 7.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩199B | ₩209B | ₩140B | ₩168B | ₩173B | ₩179B | ₩184B | ₩190B |
| EBIT margin | 13.0% | 13.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩145B | ₩152B | ₩102B | ₩122B | ₩126B | ₩130B | ₩134B | ₩138B |
| + Depreciation | ₩50B | ₩62B | ₩63B | ₩62B | ₩64B | ₩66B | ₩68B | ₩70B |
| − Capital spending | ₩44B | ₩52B | ₩65B | ₩57B | ₩59B | ₩61B | ₩63B | ₩65B |
| − Working capital | ₩173B | ₩3.5B | −₩94B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩20B | ₩20B |
| Free cash flow | −₩22B | ₩158B | ₩193B | ₩107B | ₩111B | ₩115B | ₩119B | ₩123B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.753 | 0.702 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩100B | ₩96B | ₩93B | ₩89B | ₩86B |
Terminal value ₩2.2T, worth ₩1.6T today: 77% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩29,928 a share)Now 1.35× | ₩37,0321.24× | ₩44,7341.49× | ₩54,6851.83× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩2,885 a share)Now 14.0× | ₩30,07710.4× | ₩40,97714.2× | ₩65,74322.8× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,404 a share)Now 11.9× | ₩35,48510.4× | ₩48,34514.2× | ₩77,56522.8× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩52,600 | ₩55,570 | ₩59,214 | ₩63,793 | ₩69,730 |
| 6.8% | ₩48,361 | ₩50,690 | ₩53,490 | ₩56,923 | ₩61,237 |
| 7.3% | ₩44,792 | ₩46,647 | ₩48,838 | ₩51,473 | ₩54,702 |
| 7.8% | ₩41,747 | ₩43,242 | ₩44,984 | ₩47,043 | ₩49,517 |
| 8.3% | ₩39,117 | ₩40,335 | ₩41,738 | ₩43,371 | ₩45,302 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.8T
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.7T
- P/E
- 14.0×
- P/B
- 1.4×
- P/S
- 1.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- 7.9×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩49,450 | ₩44,100 | ₩34,050 | ₩33,200 | ₩38,550 |
| Market cap | ₩2.2T | ₩2T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.7T |
| P/E | 17.9× | 11.5× | 9.4× | 14.9× | 17.6× |
| P/B | 1.7× | 1.5× | 1.2× | 1.2× | 1.6× |
| P/S | 1.4× | 1.3× | 1.0× | 1.0× | 1.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3× | 6.9× | 6.0× | 7.8× | 10.0× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering | 14.0× | 1.4× | 1.1× | 7.9× | 0.0% |
| Hyundai Engineering & Construction | 22.8× | 1.1× | 0.4× | — | 0.9% |
| Daewoo Engineering & Construction | — | 1.6× | 0.8× | — | 0.0% |
| GS Engineering & Construction | 18.8× | 0.5× | 0.2× | — | 1.7% |
| DL E&C | 3.5× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 1.6% |
| Ipark Hyundai Development | 8.6× | 0.5× | 0.4× | — | 2.9% |
| LS Marine Solution | 125.6× | 2.2× | 5.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 18.8× | 0.8× | 0.4× | — | 1.2% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering / 한전KPS / 051600 / KRX:051600
Source: KRX statistical information