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Keum Kang Steel

053260 · KOSDAQ · ₩053260 · 금강철강

₩5,490▼ ₩180 (3.17%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,361

vs the current price (₩5,490)

Enterprise value
₩28B
Equity value
₩63B
WACC
7.5%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 39% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩5,490, the model needs an operating margin of 4.0% every year (it uses 1.8%).
  • 82% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 16.2× against a typical 19.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,974
−64.0%
Base
₩3,361
−38.8%
Bull
₩6,101
+11.1%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.8%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-10.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 0.2%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 31.7%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.64

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.47, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩177B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩35B
Shares
18,720,000
Share price
₩5,490
Market cap
₩103B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩225B₩201B₩177B₩159B₩148B₩143B₩143B₩147B
Growth−7.7%−10.8%−11.9%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩5.3B₩3.8B₩1.5B₩2.9B₩2.7B₩2.6B₩2.6B₩2.6B
EBIT margin2.3%1.9%0.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%1.8%
After-tax EBIT₩3.8B₩2.8B₩1.1B₩2.1B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B
+ Depreciation———₩159M₩148M₩143M₩143M₩147M
− Capital spending₩314M₩525M₩274M₩318M₩296M₩286M₩285M₩294M
− Working capital₩16B−₩2.2B−₩7B−₩5.6B−₩3.4B−₩1.6B−₩91M₩1.4B
Free cash flow———₩7.5B₩5.2B₩3.4B₩1.8B₩414M
Discount factor———0.9300.8650.8040.7480.696
Present value———₩7B₩4.5B₩2.7B₩1.4B₩288M

Terminal value ₩18B, worth ₩12B today: 44% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩6,842 a share)Now 0.80×₩4,1380.60×₩5,2170.76×₩7,5341.10×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩340 a share)Now 16.2×₩4,15712.2×₩6,54119.2×₩9,61528.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩316 a share)Now 17.4×₩3,86112.2×₩6,07619.2×₩8,93228.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.5%₩3,733₩3,657₩3,563₩3,442₩3,285
7.0%₩3,619₩3,544₩3,452₩3,339₩3,194
7.5%₩3,521₩3,449₩3,361₩3,254₩3,122
8.0%₩3,437₩3,367₩3,284₩3,184₩3,063
8.5%₩3,364₩3,297₩3,218₩3,125₩3,014

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩103B
Enterprise value
₩68B
P/E
16.2×
P/B
0.8×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.1%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,970₩3,920₩5,330₩6,300₩5,100
Market cap₩74B₩73B₩100B₩118B₩95B
P/E—10.6×21.9×21.6×9.3×
P/B0.6×0.6×0.8×0.9×0.8×
P/S0.4×0.4×0.4×0.5×0.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.3%3.8%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Keum Kang Steel16.2×0.8×0.6×—3.1%
POSCO Holdings16.1×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.7%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.1×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings11.5×0.5×0.3×9.2×4.2%
Sama Aluminium—4.0×2.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Keum Kang Steel / 금강철강 / 053260 / KRX:053260

Source: KRX statistical information