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Kyung NAM Pharm

053950 · KOSDAQ · ₩053950 · 경남제약

₩1,774▲ ₩14 (0.80%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩13B
Equity value
−₩12B
WACC
14.0%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,774, the model needs an operating margin of 10.3% every year (it uses −2.6%).
  • Margins ranged from −11.2% to 0.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−2.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-1.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -2.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 35.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 1.8

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 2.2, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩63B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩13B
+ Stakes and investments
₩558M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩13B
Shares
19,619,649
Share price
₩1,774
Market cap
₩35B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩59B₩61B₩56B₩62B₩62B₩62B₩63B₩65B
Growth0.7%2.8%−7.9%−1.6%−0.4%0.7%1.9%3.0%
EBIT−₩1.3B₩17M−₩1.7B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.7B
EBIT margin−2.2%0.0%−3.1%−2.6%−2.6%−2.6%−2.6%−2.6%
After-tax EBIT−₩942M₩12M−₩1.3B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B
+ Depreciation———₩803M₩800M₩805M₩820M₩845M
− Capital spending₩415M₩1.2B₩1.3B₩1B₩1B₩1.1B₩1.1B₩1.1B
− Working capital−₩710M−₩7.1B₩12B−₩354M−₩87M₩152M₩415M₩668M
Free cash flow———−₩1.1B−₩1.3B−₩1.6B−₩1.9B−₩2.2B
Discount factor———0.8770.7700.6750.5920.520
Present value———−₩927M−₩1B−₩1.1B−₩1.1B−₩1.1B

Terminal value −₩15B, worth −₩7.8B today: 60% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩5,332 a share)Now 0.33×₩2,6400.50×₩4,5380.85×₩14,2412.67×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
13.0%—————
13.5%—————
14.0%—————
14.5%—————
15.0%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩35B
Enterprise value
₩22B
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,390₩4,005₩5,715₩9,106₩13,264
Market cap₩67B₩79B₩112B₩179B₩260B
P/E—12.2×———
P/B0.6×0.7×1.3×1.8×3.6×
P/S1.2×1.3×1.9×3.0×4.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kyung NAM Pharm—0.3×0.6×—0.0%
Samsung Biologics32.0×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen80.5×29.0×61.2×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.7×5.8×6.8×—0.0%
Yuhan24.0×2.4×2.5×31.3×0.8%
HLB—15.7×55.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.7×11.5×31.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kyung NAM Pharm / 경남제약 / 053950 / KRX:053950

Source: KRX statistical information