KOSDAQ · 058820 · Biotech & Pharma · ₩058820

CMG PharmaceuticalCMG제약

058820 · KOSDAQ · ₩058820 · CMG제약

₩4,520▼ ₩460 (9.24%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: −₩142B
Equity value: −₩198B
WACC: 10.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩4,520, the model needs an operating margin of 22.1% every year (it uses 0.9%).
100% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: —

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.9%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 18.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 27.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 35.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 44.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (8.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin0.9%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending26.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
Beta2
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 2.54, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩116B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): ₩56B
Shares: 14,812,355
Share price: ₩4,520
Market cap: ₩67B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩94B	₩99B	₩105B	₩126B	₩135B	₩143B	₩149B	₩153B
Growth	14.2%	5.5%	6.2%	8.6%	7.2%	5.8%	4.4%	3.0%
EBIT	₩3B	₩1B	−₩3.7B	₩1.1B	₩1.2B	₩1.3B	₩1.3B	₩1.4B
EBIT margin	3.2%	1.0%	−3.5%	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
After-tax EBIT	₩2.2B	₩740M	−₩2.7B	₩820M	₩879M	₩930M	₩971M	₩1,000M
+ Depreciation	₩1.7B	₩2.2B	₩2B	₩2.5B	₩2.7B	₩2.9B	₩3B	₩3.1B
− Capital spending	₩15B	₩32B	₩33B	₩33B	₩36B	₩38B	₩39B	₩41B
− Working capital	−₩18B	₩11B	−₩45B	₩4B	₩3.6B	₩3.1B	₩2.5B	₩1.8B
Free cash flow	₩6.5B	−₩40B	₩11B	−₩34B	−₩36B	−₩37B	−₩38B	−₩38B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.909	0.825	0.750	0.681	0.619
Present value	—	—	—	−₩31B	−₩30B	−₩28B	−₩26B	−₩24B

Terminal value −₩6.7B, worth −₩4.2B today: 3% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩13,793 a share)Now 0.33×	₩7,3940.54×	₩22,7151.65×	₩35,6882.59×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
11.1%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩67B
Enterprise value: ₩123B
P/E: 21.9×
P/B: 0.3×
P/S: 0.6×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩18,580	₩17,680	₩24,101	₩21,501	₩38,351
Market cap	₩275B	₩262B	₩357B	₩318B	₩568B
P/E	—	97.2×	55.3×	—	179.5×
P/B	1.4×	1.4×	1.9×	1.7×	3.1×
P/S	2.6×	2.6×	3.8×	3.9×	8.2×
EV/EBITDA	—	104.6×	80.3×	67.6×	154.3×
Dividend yield	0.0%	—	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
CMG Pharmaceutical	21.9×	0.3×	0.6×	—	0.0%
Samsung Biologics	32.0×	7.6×	14.0×	—	0.0%
Celltrion	27.9×	2.5×	9.0×	—	0.0%
Alteogen	80.5×	29.0×	61.2×	—	0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals	14.7×	5.8×	6.8×	—	0.0%
Yuhan	24.0×	2.4×	2.5×	31.3×	0.8%
HLB	—	15.7×	55.6×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	27.9×	6.7×	11.5×	31.3×	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: CMG Pharmaceutical / CMG제약 / 058820 / KRX:058820

Source: KRX statistical information