KOSPI · 064350 · Transport equipment · ₩064350

Hyundai-Rotem현대로템

064350 · KOSPI · ₩064350 · 현대로템

₩79,000▼ ₩3,800 (4.59%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩119,444

vs the current price (₩79,000)

Enterprise value: ₩11T
Equity value: ₩13T
WACC: 7.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 51% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩79,000, the model needs an operating margin of 5.8% every year (it uses 9.2%).
Or revenue growth −13.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩6.6T, operating profit ₩1.1T (15.9% margin) (3 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩7.4T, operating profit ₩1.2T (15.9% margin) (3 brokers). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
Margins ranged from 2.8% to 17.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
Today's P/E is 10.7× against a typical 25.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: ₩78,007; −1.3%
Base: ₩119,444; +51.2%
Bull: ₩187,630; +137.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.2%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 122.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (22.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 217.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (22.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 312.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (22.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 47.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (22.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (22.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin9.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
Capital spending2.5%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital10.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
Beta0.68
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.52, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩6.3T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩2.4T
+ Stakes and investments: ₩102B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 109,142,293
Share price: ₩79,000
Market cap: ₩8.6T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩3.6T	₩4.4T	₩5.8T	₩7.7T	₩9.1T	₩10T	₩11T	₩11T
Growth	13.4%	22.0%	33.4%	22.7%	17.8%	12.8%	7.9%	3.0%
EBIT	₩210B	₩457B	₩1T	₩712B	₩839B	₩946B	₩1T	₩1.1T
EBIT margin	5.9%	10.4%	17.2%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%
After-tax EBIT	₩152B	₩331B	₩729B	₩516B	₩608B	₩686B	₩740B	₩762B
+ Depreciation	—	—	—	₩155B	₩182B	₩206B	₩222B	₩229B
− Capital spending	₩81B	₩115B	₩156B	₩194B	₩228B	₩257B	₩277B	₩286B
− Working capital	−₩516B	₩92B	₩11B	₩156B	₩150B	₩127B	₩89B	₩36B
Free cash flow	—	—	—	₩322B	₩412B	₩507B	₩596B	₩669B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.927	0.860	0.798	0.740	0.686
Present value	—	—	—	₩298B	₩355B	₩405B	₩441B	₩459B

Terminal value ₩13T, worth ₩8.6T today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩31,211 a share)Now 2.53×	₩50,9501.63×	₩78,9222.53×	₩271,8658.71×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩7,400 a share)Now 10.7×	₩97,53813.2×	₩187,07025.3×	₩281,63138.1×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩6,474 a share)Now 12.2×	₩85,33613.2×	₩163,66925.3×	₩246,40138.1×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.8%	₩124,361	₩131,838	₩140,858	₩151,955	₩165,947
7.3%	₩115,744	₩121,869	₩129,139	₩137,907	₩148,696
7.8%	₩108,401	₩113,489	₩119,444	₩126,511	₩135,036
8.3%	₩102,071	₩106,347	₩111,293	₩117,083	₩123,953
8.8%	₩96,559	₩100,189	₩104,346	₩109,155	₩114,783

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩8.6T
Enterprise value: ₩6.2T
P/E: 10.7×
P/B: 2.5×
P/S: 1.4×
EV/EBITDA: —
Dividend yield: 0.8%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩187,900	₩49,700	₩26,600	₩28,400	₩20,800
Market cap	₩21T	₩5.4T	₩2.9T	₩3.1T	₩2.3T
P/E	26.6×	13.3×	18.0×	15.7×	34.1×
P/B	6.7×	2.7×	1.7×	2.0×	1.8×
P/S	3.5×	1.2×	0.8×	1.0×	0.8×
EV/EBITDA	—	—	—	—	—
Dividend yield	0.3%	0.4%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Hyundai-Rotem	10.7×	2.5×	1.4×	—	0.8%
Iljin Hysolus	—	1.2×	3.5×	—	0.0%
INNOXCorporation	2.2×	0.3×	1.0×	—	0.0%
Alton	304.9×	1.0×	0.7×	—	0.0%
KR Motors	0.8×	0.3×	0.6×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	2.2×	0.7×	0.8×	—	0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Hyundai-Rotem / 현대로템 / 064350 / KRX:064350

Source: KRX statistical information