Ask Warren

Deutsch Motors

067990 · KOSDAQ · ₩067990 · 도이치모터스

₩3,820▲ ₩35 (0.92%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩25,497

vs the current price (₩3,820)

Enterprise value
₩1.7T
Equity value
₩744B
WACC
4.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 567% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,820, the model needs an operating margin of 1.5% every year (it uses 2.1%).
  • Or revenue growth −10.8 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 49.5× against a typical 12.0× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩25,497
+567.5%
Bull
₩216,611
+5,570.4%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 9.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4.2%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.05, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩2.7T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩938B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩3.1B
Shares
29,181,550
Share price
₩3,820
Market cap
₩111B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩2.2T₩2.2T₩2.5T₩2.9T₩3.1T₩3.3T₩3.5T₩3.6T
Growth12.2%−1.3%17.6%9.2%7.7%6.1%4.6%3.0%
EBIT₩43B₩25B₩41B₩61B₩66B₩70B₩73B₩75B
EBIT margin1.9%1.2%1.6%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%
After-tax EBIT₩31B₩18B₩30B₩44B₩48B₩51B₩53B₩55B
+ Depreciation———₩49B₩53B₩57B₩59B₩61B
− Capital spending₩49B₩53B₩42B₩61B₩66B₩70B₩73B₩75B
− Working capital₩8.7B₩65B−₩56B₩10B₩9.4B₩8B₩6.4B₩4.4B
Free cash flow———₩22B₩26B₩29B₩33B₩36B
Discount factor———0.9580.9170.8790.8420.806
Present value———₩21B₩24B₩26B₩27B₩29B

Terminal value ₩1.9T, worth ₩1.6T today: 92% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩12,495 a share)Now 0.31×₩4,0700.33×₩5,0150.40×₩8,9760.72×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩77 a share)Now 49.5×₩3684.77×₩93012.0×₩2,75335.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩372 a share)Now 10.3×₩1,7714.77×₩4,47612.0×₩13,25535.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.4%₩29,549₩43,818₩68,265₩119,861—
3.9%₩18,474₩27,492₩41,246₩64,810₩114,542
4.4%₩10,666₩16,806₩25,497₩38,751₩61,459
4.9%₩4,868₩9,272₩15,188₩23,561₩36,330
5.4%₩394₩3,676₩7,919₩13,617₩21,682

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩111B
Enterprise value
₩950B
P/E
49.5×
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,395₩4,540₩4,975₩5,680₩7,610
Market cap₩128B₩132B₩145B₩166B₩222B
P/E37.6×—12.6×4.5×6.4×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.4×0.5×0.7×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×0.1×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%0.0%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Deutsch Motors49.5×0.3×0.0×—0.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.6×1.3×0.3×—3.7%
ISC45.3×6.0×12.6×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies18.9×1.6×5.1×—4.2%
Shinsegae14.4×0.5×0.3×—2.0%
Similar companies (median)16.6×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Deutsch Motors / 도이치모터스 / 067990 / KRX:067990

Source: KRX statistical information