Celltrion Pharm

068760 · KOSDAQ · ₩068760 · 셀트리온제약

₩37,100▲ ₩550 (1.50%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩16,771

vs the current price (₩37,100)

Enterprise value
₩853B
Equity value
₩745B
WACC
7.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 55% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩37,100, the model needs an operating margin of 18.7% every year (it uses 10.1%).
  • Or revenue growth +22.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩8,619
−76.8%
Base
₩16,771
−54.8%
Bull
₩31,068
−16.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 11.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 9.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 10.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.7%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.27, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩578B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩108B
Shares
44,402,332
Share price
₩37,100
Market cap
₩1.6T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩389B₩478B₩536B₩645B₩706B₩757B₩796B₩820B
Growth0.7%22.9%12.3%11.6%9.4%7.3%5.1%3.0%
EBIT₩36B₩37B₩56B₩65B₩71B₩76B₩80B₩83B
EBIT margin9.3%7.8%10.5%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%10.1%
After-tax EBIT₩26B₩27B₩41B₩47B₩52B₩55B₩58B₩60B
+ Depreciation———₩11B₩12B₩13B₩14B₩14B
− Capital spending₩6.9B₩6B₩18B₩14B₩15B₩16B₩17B₩17B
− Working capital₩42B₩3.8B₩26B₩27B₩24B₩21B₩15B₩9.5B
Free cash flow———₩18B₩25B₩32B₩40B₩47B
Discount factor———0.9330.8710.8120.7580.707
Present value———₩17B₩21B₩26B₩30B₩33B

Terminal value ₩1T, worth ₩726B today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,117 a share)Now 3.67×₩54,3795.38×₩75,6377.48×₩114,73911.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.2%₩18,546₩19,979₩21,749₩23,993₩26,935
6.7%₩16,530₩17,645₩18,992₩20,656₩22,765
7.2%₩14,843₩15,724₩16,771₩18,035₩19,596
7.7%₩13,412₩14,118₩14,943₩15,924₩17,108
8.2%₩12,184₩12,755₩13,415₩14,186₩15,103

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.6T
Enterprise value
₩1.7T
P/E
39.8×
P/B
3.7×
P/S
2.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩58,000₩56,700₩87,870₩60,796₩107,757
Market cap₩2.6T₩2.5T₩3.9T₩2.7T₩4.8T
P/E66.5×114.6×183.5×104.0×138.4×
P/B5.9×6.3×10.4×7.6×14.4×
P/S4.8×5.3×10.0×7.0×12.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.3%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Celltrion Pharm39.8×3.7×2.9×—0.5%
Samsung Biologics32.0×7.6×14.0×—0.0%
Celltrion27.9×2.5×9.0×—0.0%
Alteogen80.5×29.0×61.2×—0.1%
SK biopharmaceuticals14.7×5.8×6.8×—0.0%
Yuhan24.0×2.4×2.5×31.3×0.8%
HLB—15.7×55.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)27.9×6.7×11.5×31.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Celltrion Pharm / 셀트리온제약 / 068760 / KRX:068760

Source: KRX statistical information