Celltrion Pharm셀트리온제약
068760 · KOSDAQ · ₩068760 · 셀트리온제약
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩16,771
vs the current price (₩37,100)
- Enterprise value
- ₩853B
- Equity value
- ₩745B
- WACC
- 7.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model is 55% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩37,100, the model needs an operating margin of 18.7% every year (it uses 10.1%).
- Or revenue growth +22.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩8,619
- −76.8%
- Base
- ₩16,771
- −54.8%
- Bull
- ₩31,068
- −16.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.1%).
Revenue growth
- 11.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 9.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 7.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (11.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 1.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 40%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.27, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩578B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩108B
- Shares
- 44,402,332
- Share price
- ₩37,100
- Market cap
- ₩1.6T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩389B | ₩478B | ₩536B | ₩645B | ₩706B | ₩757B | ₩796B | ₩820B |
| Growth | 0.7% | 22.9% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩36B | ₩37B | ₩56B | ₩65B | ₩71B | ₩76B | ₩80B | ₩83B |
| EBIT margin | 9.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩41B | ₩47B | ₩52B | ₩55B | ₩58B | ₩60B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩14B | ₩14B |
| − Capital spending | ₩6.9B | ₩6B | ₩18B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩16B | ₩17B | ₩17B |
| − Working capital | ₩42B | ₩3.8B | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩24B | ₩21B | ₩15B | ₩9.5B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩18B | ₩25B | ₩32B | ₩40B | ₩47B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.933 | 0.871 | 0.812 | 0.758 | 0.707 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩17B | ₩21B | ₩26B | ₩30B | ₩33B |
Terminal value ₩1T, worth ₩726B today: 85% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩10,117 a share)Now 3.67× | ₩54,3795.38× | ₩75,6377.48× | ₩114,73911.3× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | ₩18,546 | ₩19,979 | ₩21,749 | ₩23,993 | ₩26,935 |
| 6.7% | ₩16,530 | ₩17,645 | ₩18,992 | ₩20,656 | ₩22,765 |
| 7.2% | ₩14,843 | ₩15,724 | ₩16,771 | ₩18,035 | ₩19,596 |
| 7.7% | ₩13,412 | ₩14,118 | ₩14,943 | ₩15,924 | ₩17,108 |
| 8.2% | ₩12,184 | ₩12,755 | ₩13,415 | ₩14,186 | ₩15,103 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.6T
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.7T
- P/E
- 39.8×
- P/B
- 3.7×
- P/S
- 2.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.5%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩58,000 | ₩56,700 | ₩87,870 | ₩60,796 | ₩107,757 |
| Market cap | ₩2.6T | ₩2.5T | ₩3.9T | ₩2.7T | ₩4.8T |
| P/E | 66.5× | 114.6× | 183.5× | 104.0× | 138.4× |
| P/B | 5.9× | 6.3× | 10.4× | 7.6× | 14.4× |
| P/S | 4.8× | 5.3× | 10.0× | 7.0× | 12.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.3% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celltrion Pharm | 39.8× | 3.7× | 2.9× | — | 0.5% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Celltrion Pharm / 셀트리온제약 / 068760 / KRX:068760
Source: KRX statistical information