Daewoong Pharma대웅제약
069620 · KOSPI · ₩069620 · 대웅제약
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩120,747
vs the current price (₩99,900)
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.6T
- Equity value
- ₩1.4T
- WACC
- 6.8%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩33,843
- −66.1%
- Base
- ₩120,747
- +20.9%
- Bull
- ₩279,851
- +180.1%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (9.7%).
Revenue growth
- 7.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 9.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 14.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 13.1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.09, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.6T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩241B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩135B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩128B
- Shares
- 11,586,575
- Share price
- ₩99,900
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.6T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.9T | ₩2T | ₩2.1T |
| Growth | 7.4% | 3.4% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩123B | ₩148B | ₩197B | ₩170B | ₩180B | ₩189B | ₩197B | ₩203B |
| EBIT margin | 8.9% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 9.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩89B | ₩107B | ₩143B | ₩123B | ₩131B | ₩137B | ₩143B | ₩147B |
| + Depreciation | ₩29B | — | — | ₩37B | ₩39B | ₩41B | ₩43B | ₩44B |
| − Capital spending | ₩156B | ₩229B | ₩241B | ₩250B | ₩265B | ₩279B | ₩290B | ₩299B |
| − Working capital | −₩37B | ₩46B | ₩59B | ₩15B | ₩14B | ₩12B | ₩10B | ₩8B |
| Free cash flow | −₩1.6B | — | — | −₩106B | −₩110B | −₩113B | −₩115B | −₩116B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.936 | 0.877 | 0.821 | 0.768 | 0.719 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩99B | −₩96B | −₩93B | −₩88B | −₩83B |
Terminal value ₩2.9T, worth ₩2.1T today: 128% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩91,825 a share)Now 1.09× | ₩137,5411.50× | ₩183,2762.00× | ₩304,2103.31× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩16,871 a share)Now 5.92× | ₩127,7327.57× | ₩369,82121.9× | ₩731,41943.4× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩11,519 a share)Now 8.67× | ₩87,2147.57× | ₩252,50921.9× | ₩499,40343.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | ₩130,219 | ₩151,356 | ₩178,023 | ₩212,727 | ₩259,762 |
| 6.3% | ₩108,745 | ₩125,415 | ₩145,934 | ₩171,821 | ₩205,508 |
| 6.8% | ₩91,157 | ₩104,566 | ₩120,747 | ₩140,666 | ₩165,794 |
| 7.3% | ₩76,523 | ₩87,489 | ₩100,505 | ₩116,212 | ₩135,547 |
| 7.8% | ₩64,189 | ₩73,281 | ₩83,925 | ₩96,560 | ₩111,805 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
- Enterprise value
- ₩1.4T
- P/E
- 5.9×
- P/B
- 1.1×
- P/S
- 0.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩172,300 | ₩126,400 | ₩116,800 | ₩158,500 | ₩148,000 |
| Market cap | ₩2T | ₩1.5T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.7T |
| P/E | 10.2× | 59.2× | 11.1× | 43.5× | 69.5× |
| P/B | 2.0× | 1.8× | 1.8× | 3.0× | 3.0× |
| P/S | 1.3× | 1.0× | 1.0× | 1.4× | 1.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | 10.9× | 17.3× | 17.6× |
| Dividend yield | 0.3% | 0.5% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daewoong Pharma | 5.9× | 1.1× | 0.7× | — | 0.6% |
| Samsung Biologics | 32.0× | 7.6× | 14.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 80.5× | 29.0× | 61.2× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 14.7× | 5.8× | 6.8× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 24.0× | 2.4× | 2.5× | 31.3× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.7× | 55.6× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.7× | 11.5× | 31.3× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Daewoong Pharma / 대웅제약 / 069620 / KRX:069620
Source: KRX statistical information