Lotte Himart롯데하이마트
071840 · KOSPI · ₩071840 · 롯데하이마트
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩17B
- Equity value
- −₩502B
- WACC
- 4.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩5,560, the model needs an operating margin of 1.5% every year (it uses 0.2%).
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- ₩49,832
- +796.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (0.2%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-11.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 0.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.8%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 6.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.15, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩2.3T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩484B
- Shares
- 23,607,712
- Share price
- ₩5,560
- Market cap
- ₩131B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩2.6T | ₩2.4T | ₩2.3T | ₩2T | ₩1.9T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.8T | ₩1.9T |
| Growth | −21.8% | −9.7% | −2.4% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩8.2B | ₩1.7B | ₩9.6B | ₩4.1B | ₩3.8B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.7B | ₩3.8B |
| EBIT margin | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩6B | ₩1.2B | ₩7B | ₩3B | ₩2.8B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.7B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩16B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩15B | ₩15B |
| − Capital spending | ₩21B | ₩30B | ₩24B | ₩20B | ₩19B | ₩18B | ₩18B | ₩19B |
| − Working capital | ₩1.6B | −₩59B | −₩39B | −₩14B | −₩8.7B | −₩4.3B | −₩235M | ₩3.5B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩7.7B | ₩3.3B | −₩772M | −₩4.6B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.955 | 0.912 | 0.871 | 0.832 | 0.795 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩7B | ₩2.8B | −₩643M | −₩3.6B |
Terminal value −₩45B, worth −₩36B today: 206% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩38,490 a share)Now 0.14× | ₩6,0100.16× | ₩7,2170.19× | ₩10,7690.28× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩131B
- Enterprise value
- ₩460B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.1×
- P/S
- 0.1×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 5.4%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩7,550 | ₩7,250 | ₩10,260 | ₩12,250 | ₩25,150 |
| Market cap | ₩178B | ₩171B | ₩242B | ₩289B | ₩594B |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.2× | 0.3× |
| P/S | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.1× | 0.2× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 4.0% | 4.1% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lotte Himart | — | 0.1× | 0.1× | — | 5.4% |
| Samsung C&T | 18.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× | — | 0.9% |
| POSCO International | 10.5× | 1.2× | 0.3× | — | 3.8% |
| ISC | 45.4× | 6.1× | 12.7× | — | 0.5% |
| Youngone | 5.1× | 0.7× | 0.7× | — | 3.1% |
| Dong SUH Companies | 19.2× | 1.6× | 5.1× | — | 4.1% |
| Shinsegae | 13.9× | 0.4× | 0.3× | — | 2.1% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.3× | 1.0× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Lotte Himart / 롯데하이마트 / 071840 / KRX:071840
Source: KRX statistical information