HD-Hyundai Marine EngineHD현대마린엔진
071970 · KOSPI · ₩071970 · HD현대마린엔진
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩35,528
vs the current price (₩35,550)
- Enterprise value
- ₩901B
- Equity value
- ₩1.2T
- WACC
- 8.0%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩24,754
- −30.4%
- Base
- ₩35,528
- −0.1%
- Bull
- ₩53,035
- +49.2%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Start from
Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.8%).
Revenue growth
- 25%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (30.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (30.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 14%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (30.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (30.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (30.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 10.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 2.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 2.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 21.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.03%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-27.
- 0.73
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.59, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.53%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩482B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩304B
- Shares
- 33,921,495
- Share price
- ₩35,550
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩245B | ₩316B | ₩402B | ₩602B | ₩720B | ₩820B | ₩890B | ₩917B |
| Growth | 36.6% | 28.9% | 27.4% | 25.0% | 19.5% | 14.0% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩18B | ₩33B | ₩76B | ₩65B | ₩78B | ₩89B | ₩96B | ₩99B |
| EBIT margin | 7.3% | 10.5% | 18.9% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩13B | ₩24B | ₩55B | ₩47B | ₩56B | ₩64B | ₩70B | ₩72B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩13B | ₩16B | ₩18B | ₩20B | ₩20B |
| − Capital spending | ₩5.5B | ₩8.3B | ₩14B | ₩17B | ₩20B | ₩23B | ₩25B | ₩26B |
| − Working capital | −₩2.6B | ₩19B | ₩40B | ₩26B | ₩25B | ₩22B | ₩15B | ₩5.7B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩18B | ₩27B | ₩38B | ₩49B | ₩61B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.793 | 0.734 | 0.679 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩16B | ₩23B | ₩30B | ₩36B | ₩41B |
Terminal value ₩1.1T, worth ₩754B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩15,390 a share)Now 2.31× | ₩15,4171.00× | ₩34,4702.24× | ₩112,9697.34× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩5,740 a share)Now 6.19× | ₩62,66410.9× | ₩93,03816.2× | ₩214,56137.4× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩5,485 a share)Now 6.48× | ₩59,88310.9× | ₩88,90916.2× | ₩205,03937.4× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | ₩37,186 | ₩39,078 | ₩41,342 | ₩44,099 | ₩47,532 |
| 7.5% | ₩34,796 | ₩36,345 | ₩38,171 | ₩40,354 | ₩43,012 |
| 8.0% | ₩32,749 | ₩34,034 | ₩35,528 | ₩37,288 | ₩39,393 |
| 8.5% | ₩30,978 | ₩32,055 | ₩33,294 | ₩34,734 | ₩36,431 |
| 9.0% | ₩29,430 | ₩30,342 | ₩31,380 | ₩32,574 | ₩33,962 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩1.2T
- Enterprise value
- ₩902B
- P/E
- 6.2×
- P/B
- 2.3×
- P/S
- 2.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩89,500 | ₩24,450 | ₩11,700 | ₩7,080 | ₩4,740 |
| Market cap | ₩3T | ₩829B | ₩397B | ₩240B | ₩161B |
| P/E | 18.4× | 10.9× | 12.5× | 17.0× | — |
| P/B | 6.2× | 2.7× | 1.8× | 1.2× | 1.0× |
| P/S | 7.5× | 2.6× | 1.6× | 1.3× | 1.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD-Hyundai Marine Engine | 6.2× | 2.3× | 2.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Enerbility | 208.4× | 4.6× | 2.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 82.2× | 24.4× | 33.1× | 74.0× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,121.0× | 13.7× | 36.0× | 2,158.2× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,006.5× | 51.3× | 151.2× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 44.8× | 6.5× | 10.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Bobcat | 13,664.7× | 914.4× | 736.1× | — | 3.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 664.7× | 19.1× | 34.5× | 1,116.1× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: HD-Hyundai Marine Engine / HD현대마린엔진 / 071970 / KRX:071970
Source: KRX statistical information