Choong ANG Vaccine Laboratory중앙백신
072020 · KOSDAQ · ₩072020 · 중앙백신
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩10,883
vs the current price (₩8,870)
- Enterprise value
- ₩78B
- Equity value
- ₩101B
- WACC
- 7.3%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩7,537
- −15.0%
- Base
- ₩10,883
- +22.7%
- Bull
- ₩16,620
- +87.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (12.8%).
Revenue growth
- 7.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 6.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (7.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 12.8%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 8.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 10.8%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 33.4%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩48B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩21B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩1.9B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 9,256,781
- Share price
- ₩8,870
- Market cap
- ₩82B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩42B | ₩46B | ₩49B | ₩52B | ₩55B | ₩58B | ₩61B | ₩63B |
| Growth | 6.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩7B | ₩5.8B | ₩6.5B | ₩6.7B | ₩7.1B | ₩7.5B | ₩7.8B | ₩8B |
| EBIT margin | 16.7% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩5.1B | ₩4.2B | ₩4.7B | ₩4.8B | ₩5.1B | ₩5.4B | ₩5.6B | ₩5.8B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩4.5B | ₩4.8B | ₩5.1B | ₩5.3B | ₩5.4B |
| − Capital spending | ₩1.9B | ₩7.2B | ₩6B | ₩5.6B | ₩6B | ₩6.3B | ₩6.6B | ₩6.8B |
| − Working capital | −₩10B | −₩1.6B | ₩4.2B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.1B | ₩999M | ₩819M | ₩609M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩2.5B | ₩2.8B | ₩3.2B | ₩3.5B | ₩3.9B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.932 | 0.868 | 0.809 | 0.754 | 0.703 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩2.3B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.6B | ₩2.7B | ₩2.7B |
Terminal value ₩93B, worth ₩65B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩11,679 a share)Now 0.76× | ₩9,5650.82× | ₩11,5720.99× | ₩16,0571.37× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩731 a share)Now 12.1× | ₩8,71211.9× | ₩11,08215.2× | ₩20,39427.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | ₩11,506 | ₩12,169 | ₩12,983 | ₩14,010 | ₩15,343 |
| 6.8% | ₩10,664 | ₩11,190 | ₩11,823 | ₩12,601 | ₩13,582 |
| 7.3% | ₩9,957 | ₩10,381 | ₩10,883 | ₩11,487 | ₩12,231 |
| 7.8% | ₩9,355 | ₩9,701 | ₩10,105 | ₩10,585 | ₩11,162 |
| 8.3% | ₩8,836 | ₩9,122 | ₩9,452 | ₩9,838 | ₩10,295 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩82B
- Enterprise value
- ₩61B
- P/E
- 12.1×
- P/B
- 0.8×
- P/S
- 1.7×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩9,800 | ₩9,800 | ₩11,010 | ₩11,000 | ₩15,000 |
| Market cap | ₩91B | ₩91B | ₩102B | ₩102B | ₩139B |
| P/E | 14.7× | 13.2× | 17.0× | 24.7× | 18.1× |
| P/B | 0.9× | 0.9× | 1.0× | 1.1× | 1.5× |
| P/S | 1.8× | 2.0× | 2.4× | 2.6× | 3.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choong ANG Vaccine Laboratory | 12.1× | 0.8× | 1.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Samsung Biologics | 31.9× | 7.6× | 13.9× | — | 0.0% |
| Celltrion | 27.9× | 2.5× | 9.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Alteogen | 79.4× | 28.6× | 60.3× | — | 0.1% |
| SK biopharmaceuticals | 15.2× | 6.0× | 7.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Yuhan | 23.2× | 2.3× | 2.4× | 30.2× | 0.8% |
| HLB | — | 15.4× | 54.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 27.9× | 6.8× | 11.4× | 30.2× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Choong ANG Vaccine Laboratory / 중앙백신 / 072020 / KRX:072020
Source: KRX statistical information