Kspco케이에스피
073010 · KOSDAQ · ₩073010 · 케이에스피
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩2,970
vs the current price (₩2,540)
- Enterprise value
- ₩148B
- Equity value
- ₩119B
- WACC
- 7.2%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩1,281
- −49.6%
- Base
- ₩2,970
- +16.9%
- Bull
- ₩5,929
- +133.4%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.2%).
Revenue growth
- 14.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 11.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 5.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (14.5% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 11.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 13.3%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 16.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 34.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.75
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.62, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩106B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩28B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩6M
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 40,191,250
- Share price
- ₩2,540
- Market cap
- ₩102B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩82B | ₩85B | ₩96B | ₩122B | ₩136B | ₩148B | ₩157B | ₩161B |
| Growth | 28.2% | 4.5% | 12.0% | 14.5% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩12B | ₩14B | ₩12B | ₩14B | ₩15B | ₩17B | ₩18B | ₩18B |
| EBIT margin | 14.5% | 16.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩8.6B | ₩10B | ₩8.4B | ₩9.9B | ₩11B | ₩12B | ₩13B | ₩13B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩16B | ₩18B | ₩20B | ₩21B | ₩21B |
| − Capital spending | ₩2B | ₩17B | ₩26B | ₩20B | ₩23B | ₩25B | ₩26B | ₩27B |
| − Working capital | ₩7.2B | −₩4.7B | ₩10B | ₩5.3B | ₩4.9B | ₩4.1B | ₩3B | ₩1.6B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩581M | ₩1.7B | ₩3.1B | ₩4.6B | ₩6.2B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.933 | 0.870 | 0.811 | 0.756 | 0.705 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩542M | ₩1.5B | ₩2.5B | ₩3.4B | ₩4.3B |
Terminal value ₩192B, worth ₩135B today: 92% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩2,183 a share)Now 1.16× | ₩3,9571.81× | ₩5,8602.68× | ₩7,2563.32× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩197 a share)Now 12.9× | ₩2,11510.7× | ₩3,36717.1× | ₩7,05935.9× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩294 a share)Now 8.64× | ₩3,15910.7× | ₩5,02917.1× | ₩10,54335.9× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | ₩3,304 | ₩3,605 | ₩3,975 | ₩4,442 | ₩5,053 |
| 6.7% | ₩2,899 | ₩3,135 | ₩3,419 | ₩3,769 | ₩4,211 |
| 7.2% | ₩2,560 | ₩2,748 | ₩2,970 | ₩3,238 | ₩3,569 |
| 7.7% | ₩2,273 | ₩2,424 | ₩2,601 | ₩2,811 | ₩3,064 |
| 8.2% | ₩2,026 | ₩2,149 | ₩2,292 | ₩2,459 | ₩2,656 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩102B
- Enterprise value
- ₩130B
- P/E
- 12.9×
- P/B
- 1.2×
- P/S
- 1.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.8%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩4,200 | ₩4,260 | ₩2,995 | ₩1,750 | ₩1,890 |
| Market cap | ₩169B | ₩171B | ₩120B | ₩70B | ₩76B |
| P/E | 25.7× | 11.2× | 9.4× | 17.7× | 33.6× |
| P/B | 2.0× | 2.4× | 2.6× | 2.1× | 2.9× |
| P/S | 1.8× | 2.0× | 1.5× | 1.1× | 1.7× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | 0.4% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kspco | 12.9× | 1.2× | 1.0× | — | 0.8% |
| Doosan Enerbility | 200.6× | 4.5× | 2.0× | — | 0.0% |
| Hanmi Semiconductor | 84.5× | 25.1× | 34.0× | 76.1× | 0.4% |
| Jusung Engineering | 1,135.2× | 13.9× | 36.4× | 2,185.7× | 0.0% |
| Rainbow Robotics | 4,308.5× | 55.2× | 162.6× | — | 0.0% |
| EO Technics | 47.1× | 6.8× | 11.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Doosan Bobcat | 13,805.1× | 923.8× | 743.7× | — | 3.5% |
| Similar companies (median) | 667.9× | 19.5× | 35.2× | 1,130.9× | 0.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Kspco / 케이에스피 / 073010 / KRX:073010
Source: KRX statistical information