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Kumho Tire

073240 · KOSPI · ₩073240 · 금호타이어

₩5,150▲ ₩50 (0.98%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩22,508

vs the current price (₩5,150)

Enterprise value
₩7.6T
Equity value
₩6.5T
WACC
6.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 337% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩5,150, the model needs an operating margin of 4.0% every year (it uses 8.8%).
  • Or revenue growth −27.3 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −1.6% to 13.0% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 3.1× against a typical 4.8× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩9,764
+89.6%
Base
₩22,508
+337.0%
Bull
₩46,857
+809.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (8.8%).

Revenue growth

  • 9.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 6.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (9.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 8.8%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 19.1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.11, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩4.8T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩901B
+ Stakes and investments
₩4.2B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩243B
Shares
287,260,287
Share price
₩5,150
Market cap
₩1.5T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩4T₩4.5T₩4.7T₩5.2T₩5.7T₩6T₩6.3T₩6.5T
Growth13.5%12.1%3.7%9.7%8.0%6.4%4.7%3.0%
EBIT₩411B₩589B₩576B₩461B₩498B₩530B₩555B₩571B
EBIT margin10.2%13.0%12.2%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%8.8%
After-tax EBIT₩298B₩427B₩417B₩334B₩361B₩384B₩402B₩414B
+ Depreciation———₩236B₩255B₩271B₩284B₩292B
− Capital spending₩193B₩248B₩313B₩293B₩317B₩337B₩353B₩363B
− Working capital−₩31B₩292B−₩164B₩88B₩80B₩69B₩54B₩36B
Free cash flow———₩188B₩219B₩249B₩279B₩307B
Discount factor———0.9420.8880.8360.7880.742
Present value———₩177B₩194B₩208B₩220B₩228B

Terminal value ₩8.9T, worth ₩6.6T today: 87% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩8,433 a share)Now 0.61×₩6,0390.72×₩7,7020.91×₩11,1031.32×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,659 a share)Now 3.10×₩6,4753.90×₩8,0134.83×₩41,45025.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩1,805 a share)Now 2.85×₩7,0463.90×₩8,7204.83×₩45,10625.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.1%₩24,309₩27,355₩31,366₩36,887₩44,976
5.6%₩21,091₩23,395₩26,327₩30,186₩35,499
6.1%₩18,503₩20,291₩22,508₩25,328₩29,041
6.6%₩16,376₩17,795₩19,515₩21,647₩24,359
7.1%₩14,599₩15,743₩17,107₩18,761₩20,811

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩1.5T
Enterprise value
₩2.2T
P/E
3.1×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩5,860₩4,775₩5,390₩2,780₩4,610
Market cap₩1.7T₩1.4T₩1.5T₩799B₩1.3T
P/E4.8×4.2×9.8×——
P/B0.8×0.8×1.2×0.7×1.1×
P/S0.4×0.3×0.4×0.2×0.5×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kumho Tire3.1×0.6×0.3×—0.0%
Hankook Tire & Technology5.8×0.5×0.3×—4.0%
Pum-Tech Korea20.5×2.6×2.2×—0.7%
Dongwon Systems9.8×0.7×0.4×5.7×2.8%
Nexen Tire3.5×0.2×0.2×—3.6%
PI Advanced Materials13.6×1.3×1.8×5.5×2.1%
Youlchon Chemical63.6×1.1×0.6×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)11.7×0.9×0.5×5.6×2.5%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kumho Tire / 금호타이어 / 073240 / KRX:073240

Source: KRX statistical information