Ask Warren

Wonik QnC

074600 · KOSDAQ · ₩074600 · 원익QnC

₩25,400▲ ₩950 (3.89%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩36,233

vs the current price (₩25,400)

Enterprise value
₩1.6T
Equity value
₩952B
WACC
6.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 43% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩25,400, the model needs an operating margin of 9.2% every year (it uses 10.6%).
  • Or revenue growth −4.9 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from 6.3% to 14.7% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 13.8× against a typical 14.6× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩7,136
−71.9%
Base
₩36,233
+42.6%
Bull
₩92,435
+263.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (10.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 6.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 5.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 4.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (6.4% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 10.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 12.5%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 15.6%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 21.8%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.66

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.5, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩1T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩561B
− Minority interests
₩88B
Shares
26,288,000
Share price
₩25,400
Market cap
₩668B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩806B₩892B₩944B₩1.1T₩1.1T₩1.2T₩1.2T₩1.3T
Growth2.9%10.6%5.8%6.4%5.6%4.7%3.9%3.0%
EBIT₩83B₩91B₩60B₩114B₩120B₩126B₩131B₩134B
EBIT margin10.3%10.2%6.3%10.6%10.6%10.6%10.6%10.6%
After-tax EBIT₩60B₩66B₩43B₩82B₩87B₩91B₩95B₩97B
+ Depreciation———₩134B₩141B₩148B₩154B₩159B
− Capital spending₩183B₩129B₩89B₩167B₩177B₩185B₩192B₩198B
− Working capital₩15B₩60B₩23B₩14B₩13B₩12B₩10B₩8.1B
Free cash flow———₩35B₩39B₩43B₩46B₩50B
Discount factor———0.9430.8890.8380.7900.745
Present value———₩33B₩35B₩36B₩37B₩37B

Terminal value ₩1.9T, worth ₩1.4T today: 89% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩20,322 a share)Now 1.25×₩21,1591.04×₩35,4861.75×₩46,3472.28×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,839 a share)Now 13.8×₩16,3768.90×₩26,81514.6×₩57,65631.3×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩3,454 a share)Now 7.35×₩30,7588.90×₩50,36414.6×₩108,28931.3×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.1%₩40,544₩47,878₩57,592₩71,081₩91,089
5.6%₩32,844₩38,356₩45,405₩54,743₩67,708
6.1%₩26,677₩30,936₩36,233₩43,006₩51,978
6.6%₩21,630₩24,993₩29,084₩34,172₩40,678
7.1%₩17,427₩20,129₩23,358₩27,286₩32,172

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩668B
Enterprise value
₩1.2T
P/E
13.8×
P/B
1.2×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩21,450₩17,820₩28,700₩23,400₩28,600
Market cap₩564B₩468B₩754B₩615B₩752B
P/E25.1×9.2×19.8×11.4×12.8×
P/B1.2×1.0×1.9×1.6×2.4×
P/S0.6×0.5×0.9×0.8×1.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.6%0.6%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Wonik QnC13.8×1.2×0.7×—0.5%
Tokai Carbon Korea30.7×4.3×7.0×—0.7%
Hanilcementco12.1×0.7×0.9×—6.0%
Sampyo Cement16.9×0.8×0.9×6.0×2.2%
Hanil Holdings9.5×0.3×0.3×—5.9%
IS Dongseo5.2×0.3×0.4×—3.5%
KCC Glass—0.3×0.2×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)12.1×0.5×0.6×6.0×2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Wonik QnC / 원익QnC / 074600 / KRX:074600

Source: KRX statistical information