LIG Defense&Aerospace

079550 · KOSPI · ₩079550 · LIG디펜스앤에어로스페이스

₩427,500▼ ₩21,500 (4.79%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩298,095

vs the current price (₩427,500)

Enterprise value
₩8.2T
Equity value
₩6.6T
WACC
6.9%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩115,369
−73.0%
Base
₩298,095
−30.3%
Bull
₩616,993
+44.3%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.6%).

Revenue growth

  • 24.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 19.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 13.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 8.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 7.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 7.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 8.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -10%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩4.7T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩1.6T
+ Stakes and investments
₩12B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩45B
Shares
22,000,000
Share price
₩427,500
Market cap
₩9.4T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩2.3T₩3.3T₩4.3T₩5.9T₩7T₩8T₩8.7T₩9T
Growth4.0%41.9%31.5%24.7%19.3%13.9%8.4%3.0%
EBIT₩186B₩230B₩319B₩448B₩535B₩609B₩661B₩680B
EBIT margin8.1%7.0%7.4%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%
After-tax EBIT₩135B₩167B₩232B₩325B₩388B₩442B₩479B₩493B
+ Depreciation———₩419B₩500B₩569B₩617B₩636B
− Capital spending₩83B₩567B₩246B₩525B₩627B₩714B₩774B₩797B
− Working capital−₩283B−₩688B₩951B−₩117B−₩114B−₩98B−₩67B−₩26B
Free cash flow———₩336B₩375B₩395B₩390B₩358B
Discount factor———0.9360.8750.8190.7660.717
Present value———₩314B₩328B₩324B₩299B₩257B

Terminal value ₩9.3T, worth ₩6.7T today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩72,508 a share)Now 5.90×₩131,3631.81×₩243,7443.36×₩693,4419.56×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩13,022 a share)Now 32.8×₩161,01112.4×₩322,08324.7×₩666,50051.2×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩15,022 a share)Now 28.5×₩185,73812.4×₩371,54624.7×₩768,85651.2×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.9%₩305,210₩345,663₩396,551₩462,490₩551,290
6.4%₩269,026₩301,634₩341,701₩392,105₩457,416
6.9%₩239,006₩265,797₩298,095₩337,782₩387,705
7.4%₩213,702₩236,065₩262,602₩294,593₩333,903
7.9%₩192,089₩211,005₩233,156₩259,441₩291,129

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩9.4T
Enterprise value
₩11T
P/E
32.8×
P/B
5.9×
P/S
2.0×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.7%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩421,000₩220,500₩130,500₩92,200₩68,600
Market cap₩9.3T₩4.9T₩2.9T₩2T₩1.5T
P/E36.6×21.9×16.4×16.5×14.4×
P/B6.5×4.0×2.7×2.2×2.0×
P/S2.2×1.5×1.2×0.9×0.8×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.7%1.1%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
LIG Defense&Aerospace32.8×5.9×2.0×—0.7%
Hanwha Aerospace19.4×3.3×1.3×—0.9%
Korea Aerospace Industries55.2×5.2×2.2×—0.5%
Satrec Initiative66.8×2.5×3.0×39.6×0.2%
Firstec16.8×2.8×0.7×—0.0%
Samyang Comtech8.3×1.4×1.5×—0.0%
Vitzro Nextech—4.4×6.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)19.4×3.0×1.9×39.6×0.1%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: LIG Defense&Aerospace / LIG디펜스앤에어로스페이스 / 079550 / KRX:079550

Source: KRX statistical information