LIG Defense&AerospaceLIG디펜스앤에어로스페이스
079550 · KOSPI · ₩079550 · LIG디펜스앤에어로스페이스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩298,095
vs the current price (₩427,500)
- Enterprise value
- ₩8.2T
- Equity value
- ₩6.6T
- WACC
- 6.9%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩115,369
- −73.0%
- Base
- ₩298,095
- −30.3%
- Bull
- ₩616,993
- +44.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (7.6%).
Revenue growth
- 24.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 19.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 13.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 8.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (24.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 7.6%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 7.1%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 8.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.18, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩4.7T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩1.6T
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩12B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- − Minority interests
- ₩45B
- Shares
- 22,000,000
- Share price
- ₩427,500
- Market cap
- ₩9.4T
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩2.3T | ₩3.3T | ₩4.3T | ₩5.9T | ₩7T | ₩8T | ₩8.7T | ₩9T |
| Growth | 4.0% | 41.9% | 31.5% | 24.7% | 19.3% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩186B | ₩230B | ₩319B | ₩448B | ₩535B | ₩609B | ₩661B | ₩680B |
| EBIT margin | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩135B | ₩167B | ₩232B | ₩325B | ₩388B | ₩442B | ₩479B | ₩493B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩419B | ₩500B | ₩569B | ₩617B | ₩636B |
| − Capital spending | ₩83B | ₩567B | ₩246B | ₩525B | ₩627B | ₩714B | ₩774B | ₩797B |
| − Working capital | −₩283B | −₩688B | ₩951B | −₩117B | −₩114B | −₩98B | −₩67B | −₩26B |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩336B | ₩375B | ₩395B | ₩390B | ₩358B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.936 | 0.875 | 0.819 | 0.766 | 0.717 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩314B | ₩328B | ₩324B | ₩299B | ₩257B |
Terminal value ₩9.3T, worth ₩6.7T today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩72,508 a share)Now 5.90× | ₩131,3631.81× | ₩243,7443.36× | ₩693,4419.56× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩13,022 a share)Now 32.8× | ₩161,01112.4× | ₩322,08324.7× | ₩666,50051.2× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩15,022 a share)Now 28.5× | ₩185,73812.4× | ₩371,54624.7× | ₩768,85651.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | ₩305,210 | ₩345,663 | ₩396,551 | ₩462,490 | ₩551,290 |
| 6.4% | ₩269,026 | ₩301,634 | ₩341,701 | ₩392,105 | ₩457,416 |
| 6.9% | ₩239,006 | ₩265,797 | ₩298,095 | ₩337,782 | ₩387,705 |
| 7.4% | ₩213,702 | ₩236,065 | ₩262,602 | ₩294,593 | ₩333,903 |
| 7.9% | ₩192,089 | ₩211,005 | ₩233,156 | ₩259,441 | ₩291,129 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩9.4T
- Enterprise value
- ₩11T
- P/E
- 32.8×
- P/B
- 5.9×
- P/S
- 2.0×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.7%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩421,000 | ₩220,500 | ₩130,500 | ₩92,200 | ₩68,600 |
| Market cap | ₩9.3T | ₩4.9T | ₩2.9T | ₩2T | ₩1.5T |
| P/E | 36.6× | 21.9× | 16.4× | 16.5× | 14.4× |
| P/B | 6.5× | 4.0× | 2.7× | 2.2× | 2.0× |
| P/S | 2.2× | 1.5× | 1.2× | 0.9× | 0.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.7% | 1.1% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIG Defense&Aerospace | 32.8× | 5.9× | 2.0× | — | 0.7% |
| Hanwha Aerospace | 19.4× | 3.3× | 1.3× | — | 0.9% |
| Korea Aerospace Industries | 55.2× | 5.2× | 2.2× | — | 0.5% |
| Satrec Initiative | 66.8× | 2.5× | 3.0× | 39.6× | 0.2% |
| Firstec | 16.8× | 2.8× | 0.7× | — | 0.0% |
| Samyang Comtech | 8.3× | 1.4× | 1.5× | — | 0.0% |
| Vitzro Nextech | — | 4.4× | 6.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 19.4× | 3.0× | 1.9× | 39.6× | 0.1% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: LIG Defense&Aerospace / LIG디펜스앤에어로스페이스 / 079550 / KRX:079550
Source: KRX statistical information