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Seo San

079650 · KOSDAQ · ₩079650 · 서산

₩7,220▼ ₩680 (8.61%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
−₩24B
Equity value
−₩37B
WACC
8.2%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩7,220, the model needs an operating margin of 29.9% every year (it uses −3.3%).
  • Margins ranged from −7.4% to 7.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
—

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−3.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.4%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • -3.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 1.1%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 1.4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.77

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.66, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩51B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩17B
+ Stakes and investments
₩2B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩33B
Shares
20,000,000
Share price
₩7,220
Market cap
₩144B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩41B₩36B₩45B₩49B₩49B₩49B₩49B₩51B
Growth−16.1%−13.5%26.4%−2.8%−1.4%0.1%1.5%3.0%
EBIT−₩1.6B−₩2.5B−₩3.3B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.6B−₩1.7B
EBIT margin−3.8%−7.0%−7.4%−3.3%−3.3%−3.3%−3.3%−3.3%
After-tax EBIT−₩1.1B−₩1.8B−₩2.4B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B−₩1.2B
+ Depreciation———₩542M₩534M₩535M₩543M₩559M
− Capital spending₩402M₩363M₩997M₩690M₩680M₩681M₩691M₩712M
− Working capital₩337M−₩4.2B−₩2.2B−₩568M−₩276M₩19M₩292M₩592M
Free cash flow———−₩759M−₩1B−₩1.3B−₩1.6B−₩2B
Discount factor———0.9240.8530.7880.7280.673
Present value———−₩701M−₩881M−₩1B−₩1.2B−₩1.3B

Terminal value −₩27B, worth −₩18B today: 78% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,512 a share)Now 2.06×₩1,2090.34×₩1,6890.48×₩3,0020.85×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩29 a share)Now 247.4×₩42014.4×₩67022.9×₩78526.9×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
7.2%—————
7.7%—————
8.2%—————
8.7%—————
9.2%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩144B
Enterprise value
₩127B
P/E
—
P/B
2.1×
P/S
2.8×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩1,425₩1,235₩1,604₩1,900₩2,590
Market cap₩29B₩25B₩32B₩38B₩52B
P/E——20.6×32.0×13.1×
P/B0.4×0.4×0.5×0.6×0.8×
P/S0.6×0.7×0.8×0.8×0.9×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Seo San—2.1×2.8×—0.0%
Tokai Carbon Korea27.9×3.9×6.4×—0.7%
Hanilcementco11.6×0.6×0.9×—6.3%
Wonik QnC14.0×1.3×0.7×—0.5%
Sampyo Cement16.4×0.7×0.8×5.9×2.2%
Hanil Holdings9.6×0.3×0.3×—5.9%
IS Dongseo5.0×0.3×0.4×—3.7%
Similar companies (median)12.8×0.7×0.8×5.9×2.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Seo San / 서산 / 079650 / KRX:079650

Source: KRX statistical information