Incon인콘
083640 · KOSDAQ · ₩083640 · 인콘
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩5,299
vs the current price (₩5,100)
- Enterprise value
- ₩7.9B
- Equity value
- ₩24B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩3,497
- −31.4%
- Base
- ₩5,299
- +3.9%
- Bull
- ₩8,807
- +72.7%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.1%).
Revenue growth
- -2.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -1.3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.1%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 1.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 0.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 29.9%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.24, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩42B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩16B
- Shares
- 4,591,668
- Share price
- ₩5,100
- Market cap
- ₩23B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩63B | ₩49B | ₩51B | ₩41B | ₩41B | ₩41B | ₩41B | ₩43B |
| Growth | 14.7% | −22.6% | 3.5% | −2.8% | −1.3% | 0.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩2.6B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.7B | ₩865M | ₩854M | ₩855M | ₩869M | ₩895M |
| EBIT margin | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩1.9B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B | ₩627M | ₩619M | ₩620M | ₩630M | ₩649M |
| + Depreciation | ₩157M | ₩108M | ₩102M | ₩82M | ₩81M | ₩81M | ₩83M | ₩85M |
| − Capital spending | ₩47M | ₩61M | ₩14M | ₩41M | ₩41M | ₩41M | ₩41M | ₩43M |
| − Working capital | −₩3.4B | ₩21B | −₩9.3B | −₩355M | −₩160M | ₩12M | ₩195M | ₩371M |
| Free cash flow | ₩5.3B | −₩20B | ₩11B | ₩1B | ₩820M | ₩648M | ₩476M | ₩320M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.808 | 0.752 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩953M | ₩711M | ₩524M | ₩358M | ₩224M |
Terminal value ₩7.3B, worth ₩5.1B today: 65% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩16,473 a share)Now 0.31× | ₩6,6580.40× | ₩10,8860.66× | ₩26,2511.59× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩5,736 | ₩5,690 | ₩5,632 | ₩5,556 | ₩5,454 |
| 6.9% | ₩5,566 | ₩5,514 | ₩5,448 | ₩5,366 | ₩5,260 |
| 7.4% | ₩5,422 | ₩5,367 | ₩5,299 | ₩5,215 | ₩5,110 |
| 7.9% | ₩5,300 | ₩5,242 | ₩5,174 | ₩5,091 | ₩4,989 |
| 8.4% | ₩5,193 | ₩5,136 | ₩5,069 | ₩4,988 | ₩4,891 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩23B
- Enterprise value
- ₩6.4B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.3×
- P/S
- 0.6×
- EV/EBITDA
- 189.7×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩6,381 | ₩7,748 | ₩15,115 | ₩29,767 | ₩46,214 |
| Market cap | ₩29B | ₩36B | ₩69B | ₩137B | ₩212B |
| P/E | — | — | — | 38.5× | — |
| P/B | 0.4× | 0.5× | 0.8× | 1.3× | 2.2× |
| P/S | 0.6× | 0.7× | 1.1× | 2.5× | 3.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 11.2× | 12.2× | 66.8× | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incon | — | 0.3× | 0.6× | 189.7× | 0.0% |
| Samsung C&T | 18.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× | — | 0.9% |
| POSCO International | 10.6× | 1.3× | 0.3× | — | 3.7% |
| ISC | 45.3× | 6.0× | 12.6× | — | 0.5% |
| Youngone | 5.1× | 0.7× | 0.7× | — | 3.1% |
| Dong SUH Companies | 18.9× | 1.6× | 5.1× | — | 4.2% |
| Shinsegae | 14.4× | 0.5× | 0.3× | — | 2.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 16.6× | 1.0× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Incon / 인콘 / 083640 / KRX:083640
Source: KRX statistical information