Incon

083640 · KOSDAQ · ₩083640 · 인콘

₩5,100▼ ₩50 (0.97%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩5,299

vs the current price (₩5,100)

Enterprise value
₩7.9B
Equity value
₩24B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩3,497
−31.4%
Base
₩5,299
+3.9%
Bull
₩8,807
+72.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.1%).

Revenue growth

  • -2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 2.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 0.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 0.1%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 29.9%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.24, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩42B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩16B
Shares
4,591,668
Share price
₩5,100
Market cap
₩23B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩63B₩49B₩51B₩41B₩41B₩41B₩41B₩43B
Growth14.7%−22.6%3.5%−2.8%−1.3%0.1%1.6%3.0%
EBIT₩2.6B₩1.6B₩1.7B₩865M₩854M₩855M₩869M₩895M
EBIT margin4.0%3.3%3.3%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%2.1%
After-tax EBIT₩1.9B₩1.2B₩1.2B₩627M₩619M₩620M₩630M₩649M
+ Depreciation₩157M₩108M₩102M₩82M₩81M₩81M₩83M₩85M
− Capital spending₩47M₩61M₩14M₩41M₩41M₩41M₩41M₩43M
− Working capital−₩3.4B₩21B−₩9.3B−₩355M−₩160M₩12M₩195M₩371M
Free cash flow₩5.3B−₩20B₩11B₩1B₩820M₩648M₩476M₩320M
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8080.7520.700
Present value———₩953M₩711M₩524M₩358M₩224M

Terminal value ₩7.3B, worth ₩5.1B today: 65% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩16,473 a share)Now 0.31×₩6,6580.40×₩10,8860.66×₩26,2511.59×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩5,736₩5,690₩5,632₩5,556₩5,454
6.9%₩5,566₩5,514₩5,448₩5,366₩5,260
7.4%₩5,422₩5,367₩5,299₩5,215₩5,110
7.9%₩5,300₩5,242₩5,174₩5,091₩4,989
8.4%₩5,193₩5,136₩5,069₩4,988₩4,891

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩23B
Enterprise value
₩6.4B
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
189.7×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,381₩7,748₩15,115₩29,767₩46,214
Market cap₩29B₩36B₩69B₩137B₩212B
P/E———38.5×—
P/B0.4×0.5×0.8×1.3×2.2×
P/S0.6×0.7×1.1×2.5×3.8×
EV/EBITDA—11.2×12.2×66.8×—
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Incon—0.3×0.6×189.7×0.0%
Samsung C&T18.8×0.5×1.2×—0.9%
POSCO International10.6×1.3×0.3×—3.7%
ISC45.3×6.0×12.6×—0.5%
Youngone5.1×0.7×0.7×—3.1%
Dong SUH Companies18.9×1.6×5.1×—4.2%
Shinsegae14.4×0.5×0.3×—2.0%
Similar companies (median)16.6×1.0×1.0×—2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Incon / 인콘 / 083640 / KRX:083640

Source: KRX statistical information