Alticast알티캐스트
085810 · KOSDAQ · ₩085810 · 알티캐스트
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,386
vs the current price (₩1,330)
- Enterprise value
- ₩28B
- Equity value
- ₩20B
- WACC
- 6.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩17
- −98.7%
- Base
- ₩1,386
- +4.2%
- Bull
- ₩4,149
- +212.0%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.1%).
Revenue growth
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: not enough revenue history, so 3%.
Business
- 4.1%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 0.7%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 0.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 34.3%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.14, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩53B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩8B
- Shares
- 14,136,953
- Share price
- ₩1,330
- Market cap
- ₩19B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | ₩53B | ₩55B | ₩56B | ₩58B | ₩60B | ₩62B |
| Growth | — | — | — | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | −₩6.3B | −₩4B | ₩3.2B | ₩2.2B | ₩2.3B | ₩2.4B | ₩2.5B | ₩2.5B |
| EBIT margin | — | — | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| After-tax EBIT | −₩4.5B | −₩2.9B | ₩2.3B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.8B | ₩1.8B |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩383M | ₩395M | ₩407M | ₩419M | ₩431M |
| − Capital spending | ₩28M | ₩31M | ₩468M | ₩493M | ₩508M | ₩523M | ₩539M | ₩555M |
| − Working capital | −₩272M | ₩2.9B | ₩19B | ₩547M | ₩563M | ₩580M | ₩598M | ₩616M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | ₩971M | ₩1B | ₩1B | ₩1.1B | ₩1.1B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.940 | 0.884 | 0.831 | 0.781 | 0.734 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩913M | ₩884M | ₩856M | ₩829M | ₩802M |
Terminal value ₩32B, worth ₩23B today: 84% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,357 a share)Now 0.40× | ₩2,3400.70× | ₩9,5082.83× | ₩14,0394.18× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | ₩1,722 | ₩1,838 | ₩1,985 | ₩2,182 | ₩2,460 |
| 5.9% | ₩1,474 | ₩1,551 | ₩1,647 | ₩1,769 | ₩1,932 |
| 6.4% | ₩1,272 | ₩1,324 | ₩1,386 | ₩1,462 | ₩1,560 |
| 6.9% | ₩1,105 | ₩1,138 | ₩1,178 | ₩1,226 | ₩1,284 |
| 7.4% | ₩964 | ₩985 | ₩1,010 | ₩1,038 | ₩1,071 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩19B
- Enterprise value
- ₩26B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.4×
- P/S
- 0.4×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,452 | ₩7,034 | ₩6,599 | ₩10,351 | ₩14,262 |
| Market cap | ₩49B | ₩99B | ₩93B | ₩146B | ₩202B |
| P/E | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/B | 1.0× | 2.7× | 4.1× | 3.0× | 3.0× |
| P/S | 0.9× | — | — | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alticast | — | 0.4× | 0.4× | — | 0.0% |
| Hyundai Autoever | 47.8× | 4.8× | 2.0× | — | 0.6% |
| Krafton | 10.0× | 1.2× | 1.9× | — | 1.2% |
| NC | 7.0× | 1.2× | 2.1× | 8.4× | 0.6% |
| Netmarble | 7.1× | 0.5× | 1.0× | — | 2.6% |
| PearlAbyss | 8.0× | 2.1× | 3.0× | 5.2× | 0.0% |
| Shift UP | 9.0× | 1.8× | 7.2× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 8.5× | 1.5× | 2.0× | 6.8× | 0.6% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Alticast / 알티캐스트 / 085810 / KRX:085810
Source: KRX statistical information