Ask Warren

Dukshinepc

090410 · KOSDAQ · ₩090410 · 덕신이피씨

₩3,160▲ ₩25 (0.80%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
Trade
Alert me
SellBuy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value
₩5.5B
Equity value
−₩612M
WACC
6.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩3,160, the model needs an operating margin of 7.3% every year (it uses 5.0%).
  • Or revenue growth +16.2 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from −0.1% to 13.3% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
—
Bull
₩6,276
+98.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (5.0%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-19.2% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 16.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 1%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta -0.27, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩110B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩6.6B
+ Stakes and investments
₩487M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
9,216,819
Share price
₩3,160
Market cap
₩29B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩218B₩147B₩106B₩99B₩93B₩89B₩89B₩92B
Growth8.2%−32.8%−27.4%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩29B₩11B−₩104M₩5B₩4.6B₩4.5B₩4.5B₩4.6B
EBIT margin13.3%7.3%−0.1%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%
After-tax EBIT₩21B₩7.8B−₩75M₩3.6B₩3.4B₩3.2B₩3.2B₩3.3B
+ Depreciation₩3.8B₩3.6B₩2.6B₩2.2B₩2B₩2B₩2B₩2B
− Capital spending₩9.2B₩2.4B₩48B₩17B₩16B₩15B₩15B₩16B
− Working capital−₩44B₩588M−₩5.1B−₩110M−₩67M−₩32M−₩1.8M₩27M
Free cash flow₩59B₩8.4B−₩40B−₩11B−₩10B−₩9.9B−₩9.9B−₩10B
Discount factor———0.9360.8770.8210.7690.720
Present value———−₩10B−₩8.9B−₩8.1B−₩7.6B−₩7.4B

Terminal value ₩66B, worth ₩48B today: 861% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩13,659 a share)Now 0.23×₩5,8300.43×₩9,9430.73×₩17,1381.25×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.8%₩22₩672₩1,493₩2,565₩4,020
6.3%——₩614₩1,419₩2,469
6.8%———₩558₩1,347
7.3%————₩503
7.8%—————

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩29B
Enterprise value
₩36B
P/E
—
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.3×
EV/EBITDA
89.2×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,535₩7,525₩9,905₩9,400₩12,200
Market cap₩60B₩69B₩91B₩87B₩112B
P/E38.9×6.2×3.8×8.5×31.9×
P/B0.5×0.6×0.8×1.0×1.4×
P/S0.6×0.5×0.4×0.4×0.7×
EV/EBITDA27.4×2.6×1.5×4.4×19.7×
Dividend yield0.0%1.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Dukshinepc—0.2×0.3×89.2×0.0%
CS Wind385.5×1.3×0.6×—2.5%
Hankuk Carbon7.8×1.2×0.9×—2.1%
Taewoong65.8×0.8×1.3×21.0×0.0%
YG-15.1×0.8×0.5×—1.8%
Bosung Power Technology18.8×2.1×1.8×8.5×0.0%
HT Robotics44.6×3.2×2.1×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)31.7×1.2×1.1×14.7×0.9%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Dukshinepc / 덕신이피씨 / 090410 / KRX:090410

Source: KRX statistical information