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Kishin

092440 · KOSPI · ₩092440 · 기신정기

₩1,696▼ ₩44 (2.53%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩3,401

vs the current price (₩1,696)

Enterprise value
₩35B
Equity value
₩99B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 101% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩1,696, the model needs an operating margin of 0.8% every year (it uses 3.7%).
  • Margins ranged from 0.8% to 8.8% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • 68% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
  • Today's P/E is 14.3× against a typical 14.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩2,398
+41.4%
Base
₩3,401
+100.6%
Bull
₩5,357
+215.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.7%).

Revenue growth

  • -0%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (0% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.7%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.4%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 40%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.19, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to Q1 2026)
₩128B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩45B
+ Stakes and investments
₩19B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
29,200,000
Share price
₩1,696
Market cap
₩50B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to Q1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩144B₩138B₩131B₩128B₩129B₩131B₩134B₩138B
Growth10.0%−4.6%−4.7%0.0%0.7%1.5%2.2%3.0%
EBIT₩6.4B₩2.5B₩1B₩4.7B₩4.8B₩4.8B₩5B₩5.1B
EBIT margin4.4%1.8%0.8%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%
After-tax EBIT₩4.7B₩1.8B₩738M₩3.4B₩3.5B₩3.5B₩3.6B₩3.7B
+ Depreciation———₩4.4B₩4.4B₩4.5B₩4.6B₩4.7B
− Capital spending₩9.1B₩4.6B₩4.3B₩5.5B₩5.6B₩5.6B₩5.8B₩5.9B
− Working capital−₩13B−₩19B−₩3.7B₩0₩359M₩775M₩1.2B₩1.6B
Free cash flow———₩2.3B₩1.9B₩1.6B₩1.2B₩852M
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩2.1B₩1.7B₩1.3B₩931M₩599M

Terminal value ₩41B, worth ₩29B today: 81% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩8,372 a share)Now 0.20×₩2,1770.26×₩2,9330.35×₩4,1750.50×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩119 a share)Now 14.3×₩1,44612.2×₩1,77414.9×₩2,22618.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩3,708₩3,702₩3,693₩3,680₩3,660
6.8%₩3,568₩3,552₩3,532₩3,505₩3,470
7.3%₩3,450₩3,428₩3,401₩3,367₩3,324
7.8%₩3,350₩3,324₩3,293₩3,256₩3,209
8.3%₩3,263₩3,236₩3,203₩3,163₩3,115

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩50B
Enterprise value
₩3.8B
P/E
14.3×
P/B
0.2×
P/S
0.4×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
5.9%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩2,315₩2,465₩3,065₩3,430₩4,240
Market cap₩68B₩72B₩89B₩100B₩124B
P/E21.7×42.0×20.4×11.8×12.7×
P/B0.3×0.3×0.4×0.4×0.5×
P/S0.5×0.5×0.6×0.8×1.0×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield4.3%4.9%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Kishin14.3×0.2×0.4×—5.9%
Doosan Enerbility193.9×4.3×2.0×—0.0%
Hanmi Semiconductor78.4×23.3×31.6×70.6×0.4%
Jusung Engineering1,058.2×13.0×34.0×2,036.0×0.0%
Rainbow Robotics4,137.6×53.0×156.2×—0.0%
EO Technics44.1×6.4×10.8×—0.0%
Doosan Bobcat13,622.5×911.6×733.9×—3.5%
Similar companies (median)626.0×18.1×32.8×1,053.3×0.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Kishin / 기신정기 / 092440 / KRX:092440

Source: KRX statistical information