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Nexteel

092790 · KOSPI · ₩092790 · 넥스틸

₩10,650▼ ₩570 (5.08%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩25,555

vs the current price (₩10,650)

Enterprise value
₩684B
Equity value
₩664B
WACC
6.7%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 140% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩10,650, the model needs an operating margin of 5.6% every year (it uses 11.6%).
  • Or revenue growth −21.6 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Margins ranged from 7.2% to 25.4% over the last 3 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 29.2× against a typical 7.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩15,101
+41.8%
Base
₩25,555
+139.9%
Bull
₩44,247
+315.5%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (11.6%).

Revenue growth

  • -5.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 0.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 2 years' revenue growth (-5.7% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 11.6%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 3 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 4%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so a typical level.

  • 22.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.41, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩484B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩69B
+ Stakes and investments
₩49B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
26,002,000
Share price
₩10,650
Market cap
₩277B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩619B₩552B₩551B₩457B₩441B₩435B₩438B₩452B
Growth—−10.8%−0.2%−5.7%−3.5%−1.3%0.8%3.0%
EBIT₩157B₩63B₩40B₩53B₩51B₩50B₩51B₩52B
EBIT margin25.4%11.4%7.2%11.6%11.6%11.6%11.6%11.6%
After-tax EBIT₩114B₩46B₩29B₩38B₩37B₩37B₩37B₩38B
+ Depreciation———₩14B₩13B₩13B₩13B₩14B
− Capital spending———₩18B₩18B₩17B₩18B₩18B
− Working capital—−₩32B₩67B−₩6.2B−₩3.6B−₩1.3B₩786M₩3B
Free cash flow———₩40B₩36B₩34B₩32B₩30B
Discount factor———0.9370.8780.8230.7710.723
Present value———₩38B₩32B₩28B₩24B₩22B

Terminal value ₩748B, worth ₩541B today: 79% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩18,060 a share)Now 0.59×₩7,8080.43×₩10,8260.60×₩14,4000.80×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩365 a share)Now 29.2×₩6341.74×₩2,6737.33×₩7,42220.4×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩69 a share)Now 154.1×₩1201.74×₩5077.33×₩1,40720.4×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2023, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
5.7%₩27,125₩29,527₩32,573₩36,561₩42,014
6.2%₩24,452₩26,329₩28,647₩31,586₩35,436
6.7%₩22,247₩23,744₩25,555₩27,792₩30,628
7.2%₩20,398₩21,612₩23,056₩24,803₩26,961
7.7%₩18,825₩19,823₩20,994₩22,386₩24,072

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩277B
Enterprise value
₩324B
P/E
29.2×
P/B
0.6×
P/S
0.6×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
10.8%

Over time (at each year end)

202520242023
Price₩9,110₩7,450₩7,160
Market cap₩237B₩194B₩186B
P/E6.6×5.6×1.4×
P/B0.5×0.4×0.4×
P/S0.4×0.4×0.3×
EV/EBITDA———
Dividend yield12.7%3.4%—

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Nexteel29.2×0.6×0.6×—10.8%
POSCO Holdings16.2×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.6%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.2×—1.9%
Poongsan8.1×0.7×0.3×5.9×2.9%
SeAH Besteel Holdings12.2×0.5×0.3×9.5×4.0%
Sama Aluminium—4.1×3.0×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)14.2×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Nexteel / 넥스틸 / 092790 / KRX:092790

Source: KRX statistical information