Mcnex엠씨넥스
097520 · KOSPI · ₩097520 · 엠씨넥스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩21,476
vs the current price (₩19,970)
- Enterprise value
- ₩381B
- Equity value
- ₩374B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩1,773
- −91.1%
- Base
- ₩21,476
- +7.5%
- Bull
- ₩57,564
- +188.3%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.7%).
Revenue growth
- 4.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 4.4%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.9%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (4.9% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.7%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.4%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 3.6%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 11%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.08%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.
- 0.61
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.42, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.58%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩1.2T
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩7.6B
- Shares
- 17,401,500
- Share price
- ₩19,970
- Market cap
- ₩348B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩932B | ₩1.1T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.3T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.4T | ₩1.5T |
| Growth | −15.9% | 13.4% | 21.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩18B | ₩44B | ₩52B | ₩34B | ₩36B | ₩37B | ₩38B | ₩39B |
| EBIT margin | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩13B | ₩32B | ₩38B | ₩25B | ₩26B | ₩27B | ₩28B | ₩29B |
| + Depreciation | ₩51B | ₩44B | ₩46B | ₩56B | ₩58B | ₩60B | ₩62B | ₩64B |
| − Capital spending | ₩38B | ₩38B | ₩41B | ₩45B | ₩47B | ₩49B | ₩51B | ₩53B |
| − Working capital | ₩36B | ₩35B | ₩20B | ₩6.5B | ₩6.1B | ₩5.7B | ₩5.3B | ₩4.7B |
| Free cash flow | −₩10B | ₩2.9B | ₩22B | ₩28B | ₩30B | ₩32B | ₩34B | ₩36B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.868 | 0.808 | 0.753 | 0.701 |
| Present value | — | — | — | ₩26B | ₩26B | ₩26B | ₩25B | ₩25B |
Terminal value ₩360B, worth ₩252B today: 66% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩22,665 a share)Now 0.88× | ₩20,9730.93× | ₩31,9121.41× | ₩57,7832.55× |
| Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩1,944 a share)Now 10.3× | ₩13,1336.76× | ₩19,4129.99× | ₩60,66731.2× |
| P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩182 a share)Now 109.6× | ₩1,2316.76× | ₩1,8209.99× | ₩5,68731.2× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩23,507 | ₩24,568 | ₩25,864 | ₩27,487 | ₩29,583 |
| 6.9% | ₩21,663 | ₩22,476 | ₩23,449 | ₩24,637 | ₩26,125 |
| 7.4% | ₩20,103 | ₩20,733 | ₩21,476 | ₩22,364 | ₩23,449 |
| 7.9% | ₩18,765 | ₩19,259 | ₩19,833 | ₩20,507 | ₩21,314 |
| 8.4% | ₩17,604 | ₩17,995 | ₩18,442 | ₩18,959 | ₩19,568 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩348B
- Enterprise value
- ₩355B
- P/E
- 10.3×
- P/B
- 0.9×
- P/S
- 0.3×
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.6×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩28,850 | ₩19,180 | ₩30,250 | ₩27,900 | ₩57,500 |
| Market cap | ₩502B | ₩334B | ₩526B | ₩486B | ₩1T |
| P/E | 9.7× | 5.2× | 18.9× | 21.1× | 25.3× |
| P/B | 1.3× | 0.9× | 1.6× | 1.6× | 3.3× |
| P/S | 0.4× | 0.3× | 0.6× | 0.4× | 1.0× |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2× | 3.9× | 8.2× | 8.2× | 13.4× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mcnex | 10.3× | 0.9× | 0.3× | 4.6× | 0.0% |
| Samsung Electronics | 9.5× | 2.5× | 2.9× | — | 0.7% |
| LG Electronics | 25.3× | 1.0× | 0.3× | — | 0.8% |
| Hanwha Vision | 17.0× | 2.1× | 1.1× | — | 0.0% |
| RFHIC | 41.3× | 3.7× | 6.7× | — | 0.8% |
| KMW | — | 5.0× | 8.1× | — | 0.0% |
| Intellian Technologies | 13.4× | 2.0× | 1.6× | — | 0.4% |
| Similar companies (median) | 17.0× | 2.3× | 2.3× | — | 0.5% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: Mcnex / 엠씨넥스 / 097520 / KRX:097520
Source: KRX statistical information