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CJ Cheiljedang

097950 · KOSPI · ₩097950 · CJ제일제당

₩171,300▲ ₩1,500 (0.88%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩817,369

vs the current price (₩171,300)

Enterprise value
₩29T
Equity value
₩13T
WACC
4.6%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 377% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩171,300, the model needs an operating margin of 3.4% every year (it uses 4.9%).
  • Or revenue growth −9.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2026: revenue ₩29T, operating profit ₩1.2T (4.1% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.
  • Analysts' forecasts for 2027: revenue ₩30T, operating profit ₩1.4T (4.6% margin) (1 broker). The model starts from the last 12 months reported.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
—
Base
₩817,369
+377.2%
Bull
₩3,950,567
+2,206.2%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (4.9%).

Revenue growth

  • -3.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -1.6%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.1%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 1.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-3.1% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 4.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 4.9%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 3.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.06, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩27T
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩12T
+ Stakes and investments
₩363B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩4.5T
Shares
16,381,619
incl. 1,327,433 preferred
Share price
₩171,300
Market cap
₩2.7T

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩29T₩29T₩27T₩27T₩26T₩26T₩26T₩27T
Growth−3.5%1.2%−6.9%−3.1%−1.6%−0.1%1.5%3.0%
EBIT₩1.3T₩1.6T₩1.2T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T
EBIT margin4.5%5.3%4.5%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%
After-tax EBIT₩936B₩1.1T₩894B₩942B₩927B₩926B₩940B₩968B
+ Depreciation———₩1T₩1T₩1T₩1T₩1.1T
− Capital spending₩1.3T₩1.1T₩1.8T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T₩1.3T
− Working capital−₩883B₩541B−₩3.3T−₩31B−₩15B−₩940M₩14B₩29B
Free cash flow———₩708B₩681B₩666B₩661B₩667B
Discount factor———0.9560.9140.8730.8350.798
Present value———₩676B₩622B₩582B₩552B₩532B

Terminal value ₩33T, worth ₩26T today: 90% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩455,862 a share)Now 0.38×₩201,0690.44×₩302,8520.66×₩456,1201.00×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
3.6%₩903,703₩1,295,610₩1,928,325₩3,122,520₩6,222,693
4.1%₩599,960₩859,956₩1,242,107₩1,859,072₩3,023,541
4.6%₩380,140₩563,830₩817,369₩1,190,029₩1,791,670
5.1%₩213,731₩349,514₩528,652₩775,907₩1,139,331
5.6%₩83,413₩187,263₩319,688₩494,396₩735,537

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩2.6T
Enterprise value
₩12T
P/E
—
P/B
0.3×
P/S
0.1×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
3.5%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩208,000₩255,500₩324,000₩380,500₩387,500
Market cap₩3.1T₩3.8T₩4.9T₩5.7T₩5.8T
P/E—26.0×12.6×7.1×6.5×
P/B0.4×0.5×0.7×0.8×1.0×
P/S0.1×0.1×0.2×0.2×0.2×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield2.9%2.3%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Samyang Foods17.6×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.6×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.6×—1.5%
Otoki17.3×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.2×0.9×0.4×6.4×4.5%
Lotte Wellfood12.7×0.5×0.2×—2.8%
Similar companies (median)15.0×0.9×0.5×5.8×2.8%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: CJ Cheiljedang / CJ제일제당 / 097950 / KRX:097950

Source: KRX statistical information