KOSDAQ · 099320 · Aerospace & Defense · ₩099320

Satrec Initiative쎄트렉아이

099320 · KOSDAQ · ₩099320 · 쎄트렉아이

₩55,400▼ ₩1,500 (2.64%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.

Trade

Sell Buy

Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.

Enterprise value: −₩265B
Equity value: −₩192B
WACC: 8.1%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:

To match today's price of ₩55,400, the model needs an operating margin of 18.6% every year (it uses −0.2%).
Margins ranged from −8.5% to 4.9% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
55% of the last 12 months' net profit came from outside operations (stakes in other companies, interest, one-offs). The model adds those stakes at book value but doesn't project that income.
In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Today's P/E is 65.0× against a typical 31.9× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear: —
Base: —
Bull: —

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Cycle options

Start from

Preliminary results are the company's early announcement of a quarter's sales and operating profit, before the full report. Including them swaps that quarter in for the same quarter a year earlier.

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (−0.2%).

Revenue growth

Revenue growth, year 125%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 219.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 314%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 48.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Revenue growth, year 53%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (31.3% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

EBIT margin-0.2%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
Tax rate27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
Depreciation & amortisation2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Capital spending22.1%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
Working capital-10%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

Terminal growth2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
Risk-free rate4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
Beta0.75
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.62, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
Equity risk premium5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
Cost of debt (before tax)5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026): ₩211B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits): −₩68B
+ Stakes and investments: ₩4.6B; Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares: 10,951,278
Share price: ₩55,400
Market cap: ₩607B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
Revenue	₩125B	₩171B	₩207B	₩263B	₩315B	₩359B	₩389B	₩401B
Growth	37.3%	36.6%	20.8%	25.0%	19.5%	14.0%	8.5%	3.0%
EBIT	−₩4.4B	−₩3.1B	₩10B	−₩527M	−₩630M	−₩718M	−₩779M	−₩802M
EBIT margin	−3.5%	−1.8%	4.9%	−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.2%	−0.2%
After-tax EBIT	−₩3.2B	−₩2.2B	₩7.4B	−₩382M	−₩456M	−₩520M	−₩565M	−₩581M
+ Depreciation	₩2.6B	₩3.6B	₩3.9B	₩5.3B	₩6.3B	₩7.2B	₩7.8B	₩8B
− Capital spending	₩51B	₩23B	₩25B	₩58B	₩70B	₩79B	₩86B	₩89B
− Working capital	−₩67B	−₩60B	₩75B	−₩5.3B	−₩5.1B	−₩4.4B	−₩3.1B	−₩1.2B
Free cash flow	₩15B	₩38B	−₩88B	−₩48B	−₩59B	−₩68B	−₩76B	−₩80B
Discount factor	—	—	—	0.925	0.855	0.791	0.731	0.676
Present value	—	—	—	−₩44B	−₩50B	−₩54B	−₩55B	−₩54B

Terminal value −₩9.7B, worth −₩6.5B today: 2% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

	Low	Typical	High
Price / book (book value ₩22,551 a share)Now 2.46×	₩47,5602.11×	₩64,4142.86×	₩106,1334.71×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩852 a share)Now 65.0×	₩7,9329.31×	₩27,15831.9×	₩55,40065.0×
P/E on run-rate earnings (preliminary Q3 2026 × 4: ₩1,432 a share)Now 38.7×	₩13,3319.31×	₩45,64331.9×	₩93,10665.0×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
8.6%	—	—	—	—	—
9.1%	—	—	—	—	—

Now (TTM)

Market cap: ₩607B
Enterprise value: ₩539B
P/E: 65.0×
P/B: 2.5×
P/S: 2.9×
EV/EBITDA: 38.5×
Dividend yield: 0.2%

Over time (at each year end)

	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021
Price	₩68,600	₩40,050	₩30,950	₩30,000	₩45,950
Market cap	₩751B	₩439B	₩339B	₩329B	₩503B
P/E	49.1×	55.4×	7.7×	—	—
P/B	3.0×	1.9×	1.6×	2.7×	4.2×
P/S	3.6×	2.6×	2.7×	3.6×	6.9×
EV/EBITDA	48.8×	531.5×	—	—	128.3×
Dividend yield	0.1%	0.5%	—	—	—

Versus similar companies

Company	P/E	P/B	P/S	EV/EBITDA	Dividend yield
Satrec Initiative	65.0×	2.5×	2.9×	38.5×	0.2%
Hanwha Aerospace	17.8×	3.0×	1.2×	—	1.0%
Korea Aerospace Industries	53.8×	5.0×	2.2×	—	0.5%
LIG Defense&Aerospace	31.9×	5.7×	1.9×	—	0.7%
Firstec	16.4×	2.7×	0.7×	—	0.0%
Samyang Comtech	7.8×	1.3×	1.5×	—	0.0%
Vitzro Nextech	—	4.1×	5.9×	—	0.0%
Similar companies (median)	17.8×	3.5×	1.7×	—	0.3%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Satrec Initiative / 쎄트렉아이 / 099320 / KRX:099320

Source: KRX statistical information