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Dongbang Ship Machinery

099410 · KOSDAQ · ₩099410 · 동방선기

₩2,525▲ ₩45 (1.81%)End-of-day · Oct 28, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩8,021

vs the current price (₩2,525)

Enterprise value
₩106B
Equity value
₩112B
WACC
7.8%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 218% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩2,525, the model needs an operating margin of 3.9% every year (it uses 12.9%).
  • Margins ranged from 2.1% to 22.2% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
  • Today's P/E is 3.4× against a typical 10.2× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩5,332
+111.2%
Base
₩8,021
+217.7%
Bull
₩12,365
+389.7%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (12.9%).

Revenue growth

  • 19%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 15%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 11%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (19% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 12.9%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.8%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 0.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 17.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.68

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.53, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩45B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩6.7B
+ Stakes and investments
₩33M
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
14,000,000
Share price
₩2,525
Market cap
₩35B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩27B₩36B₩42B₩54B₩62B₩69B₩74B₩76B
Growth9.8%30.8%17.3%19.0%15.0%11.0%7.0%3.0%
EBIT₩3.4B₩4.1B₩9.3B₩7B₩8B₩8.9B₩9.5B₩9.8B
EBIT margin12.5%11.4%22.2%12.9%12.9%12.9%12.9%12.9%
After-tax EBIT₩2.5B₩3B₩6.7B₩5.1B₩5.8B₩6.4B₩6.9B₩7.1B
+ Depreciation₩950M₩956M₩965M₩1.5B₩1.7B₩1.9B₩2.1B₩2.1B
− Capital spending₩75M₩471M₩270M₩378M₩435M₩483M₩517M₩532M
− Working capital−₩994M₩243M₩27M₩1.5B₩1.4B₩1.2B₩850M₩390M
Free cash flow₩4.3B₩3.2B₩7.4B₩4.7B₩5.7B₩6.7B₩7.6B₩8.3B
Discount factor———0.9270.8600.7980.7400.686
Present value———₩4.3B₩4.9B₩5.3B₩5.6B₩5.7B

Terminal value ₩116B, worth ₩80B today: 75% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,869 a share)Now 0.65×₩3,7050.96×₩4,6921.21×₩6,8681.78×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩734 a share)Now 3.44×₩4,5816.24×₩7,51410.2×₩23,30531.7×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩372 a share)Now 6.79×₩2,3186.24×₩3,80310.2×₩11,79531.7×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.8%₩8,408₩8,941₩9,584₩10,376₩11,373
7.3%₩7,776₩8,212₩8,729₩9,354₩10,121
7.8%₩7,236₩7,597₩8,021₩8,523₩9,129
8.3%₩6,769₩7,073₩7,424₩7,835₩8,322
8.8%₩6,362₩6,620₩6,914₩7,255₩7,654

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩35B
Enterprise value
₩29B
P/E
3.4×
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.8×
EV/EBITDA
2.0×
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩4,510₩3,055₩2,305₩2,495₩3,235
Market cap₩63B₩43B₩32B₩35B₩45B
P/E7.9×7.1×6.7×27.3×42.8×
P/B1.3×1.0×0.9×1.2×1.6×
P/S1.5×1.2×1.2×1.4×2.0×
EV/EBITDA6.0×10.1×7.2×19.4×39.4×
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Dongbang Ship Machinery3.4×0.7×0.8×2.0×0.0%
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries11.9×2.8×1.4×—2.0%
Hanwha Ocean7.8×2.1×1.1×—0.0%
Samsung Heavy Industries25.7×3.0×1.3×—0.0%
Daehan Shipbuilding4.7×1.2×1.1×—0.7%
Sejin Heavy Industries6.6×1.7×1.1×—3.0%
Hyundai Hyms14.7×1.4×1.4×—1.3%
Similar companies (median)9.8×1.9×1.2×—1.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Dongbang Ship Machinery / 동방선기 / 099410 / KRX:099410

Source: KRX statistical information