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Haitai Confectionery and Foods

101530 · KOSPI · ₩101530 · 해태제과식품

₩4,780▼ ₩50 (1.04%)End-of-day · Oct 29, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩21,306

vs the current price (₩4,780)

Enterprise value
₩795B
Equity value
₩620B
WACC
5.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Why the model and the price differ

The model is 346% away from today's price. A gap this size usually means the market expects something the past figures don't show yet, or the model leaves something out. What we can see:

  • To match today's price of ₩4,780, the model needs an operating margin of 2.8% every year (it uses 6.1%).
  • Or revenue growth −18.4 points a year higher than assumed in each of the 5 years.
  • Today's P/E is 6.4× against a typical 7.3× over the last 10 years.

Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩5,622
+17.6%
Base
₩21,306
+345.7%
Bull
₩54,673
+1,043.8%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in

Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (6.1%).

Revenue growth

  • 2.8%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 2.9%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (2.8% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 6.1%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 3.9%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 4.7%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -1.6%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.08%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-29.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.08, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.58%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩637B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
₩201B
+ Stakes and investments
₩27B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
− Minority interests
₩1B
Shares
29,116,822
Share price
₩4,780
Market cap
₩139B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩625B₩629B₩641B₩654B₩673B₩693B₩714B₩735B
Growth5.9%0.7%1.9%2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.0%
EBIT₩46B₩49B₩42B₩40B₩41B₩42B₩44B₩45B
EBIT margin7.3%7.8%6.6%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%6.1%
After-tax EBIT₩33B₩36B₩31B₩29B₩30B₩31B₩32B₩33B
+ Depreciation₩24B——₩26B₩26B₩27B₩28B₩29B
− Capital spending₩24B₩32B₩33B₩31B₩32B₩33B₩34B₩35B
− Working capital₩11B−₩6.9B₩9.9B−₩285M−₩304M−₩312M−₩333M−₩343M
Free cash flow₩23B——₩24B₩25B₩25B₩26B₩27B
Discount factor———0.9490.9000.8540.8100.768
Present value———₩23B₩22B₩22B₩21B₩21B

Terminal value ₩893B, worth ₩686B today: 86% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩10,750 a share)Now 0.44×₩6,2010.58×₩7,0340.65×₩8,8700.83×
Price / earnings (last 12 months: ₩748 a share)Now 6.39×₩4,1545.55×₩5,4457.28×₩13,33417.8×
P/E on run-rate earnings (Q2 2026 × 4: ₩612 a share)Now 7.81×₩3,3965.55×₩4,4517.28×₩10,90017.8×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
4.4%₩22,225₩26,611₩32,816₩42,268₩58,418
4.9%₩18,552₩21,760₩26,071₩32,171₩41,463
5.4%₩15,713₩18,152₩21,306₩25,544₩31,541
5.9%₩13,453₩15,363₩17,760₩20,862₩25,028
6.4%₩11,613₩13,143₩15,020₩17,378₩20,427

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩139B
Enterprise value
₩334B
P/E
6.4×
P/B
0.4×
P/S
0.2×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
5.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩6,700₩6,000₩5,400₩6,590₩7,970
Market cap₩195B₩175B₩157B₩192B₩232B
P/E8.4×5.5×7.3×——
P/B0.6×0.6×0.6×0.8×0.9×
P/S0.3×0.3×0.3×0.3×0.4×
EV/EBITDA——5.4×9.2×8.9×
Dividend yield3.7%4.2%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
Haitai Confectionery and Foods6.4×0.4×0.2×—5.2%
Samyang Foods17.6×5.6×3.1×—0.4%
Orion10.6×1.1×1.2×5.3×3.1%
CJ Cheiljedang—0.3×0.1×—3.5%
Nongshim12.0×0.8×0.6×—1.5%
Otoki17.3×0.6×0.3×—2.9%
Hite Jinro23.2×0.9×0.4×6.4×4.5%
Similar companies (median)17.3×0.9×0.5×5.8×3.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: Haitai Confectionery and Foods / 해태제과식품 / 101530 / KRX:101530

Source: KRX statistical information