NHN Bugs

104200 · KOSDAQ · ₩104200 · NHN벅스

₩2,535▲ ₩55 (2.22%)End-of-day · Oct 27, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩1,874

vs the current price (₩2,535)

Enterprise value
₩3.2B
Equity value
₩28B
WACC
7.4%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩1,344
−47.0%
Base
₩1,874
−26.1%
Bull
₩2,863
+12.9%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.5%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 1.5%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 4.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 5.3%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • -2.5%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.11%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.34, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.61%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩44B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩19B
+ Stakes and investments
₩5.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
14,827,550
Share price
₩2,535
Market cap
₩38B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩57B₩52B₩45B₩39B₩37B₩35B₩35B₩36B
Growth−13.7%−8.4%−13.8%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩804M₩357M−₩735M₩588M₩549M₩529M₩528M₩544M
EBIT margin1.4%0.7%−1.6%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%1.5%
After-tax EBIT₩583M₩259M−₩533M₩426M₩398M₩384M₩383M₩395M
+ Depreciation———₩1.6B₩1.5B₩1.5B₩1.5B₩1.5B
− Capital spending₩4.2B₩3.4B₩836M₩2.1B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B₩1.9B
− Working capital₩3.6B−₩4.7B−₩579M₩109M₩66M₩32M₩1.8M−₩26M
Free cash flow———−₩114M−₩70M−₩36M−₩6.2M₩22M
Discount factor———0.9310.8670.8070.7510.700
Present value———−₩106M−₩61M−₩29M−₩4.6M₩15M

Terminal value ₩4.9B, worth ₩3.4B today: 106% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩3,465 a share)Now 0.73×₩2,4360.70×₩3,1690.91×₩8,0242.32×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.4%₩1,875₩1,904₩1,940₩1,986₩2,045
6.9%₩1,850₩1,874₩1,904₩1,940₩1,986
7.4%₩1,830₩1,850₩1,874₩1,904₩1,940
7.9%₩1,812₩1,830₩1,850₩1,874₩1,903
8.4%₩1,797₩1,812₩1,830₩1,850₩1,874

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩38B
Enterprise value
₩17B
P/E
—
P/B
0.7×
P/S
0.9×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
0.0%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩3,000₩2,745₩4,610₩5,700₩19,100
Market cap₩44B₩41B₩68B₩85B₩283B
P/E———33.4×—
P/B0.9×0.7×1.0×1.1×4.0×
P/S1.0×0.8×1.2×1.3×4.4×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield0.0%————

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
NHN Bugs—0.7×0.9×—0.0%
NAVER13.1×0.9×2.0×—1.5%
Kakao37.7×1.1×1.6×—0.3%
Daou Technology1.9×0.4×0.0×—5.6%
NICE Information Service11.3×2.0×1.6×6.6×3.0%
Kinx24.4×2.7×3.5×10.7×0.5%
Cafe2411.5×1.5×1.3×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)12.3×1.3×1.6×6.6×1.0%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: NHN Bugs / NHN벅스 / 104200 / KRX:104200

Source: KRX statistical information