NHN BugsNHN벅스
104200 · KOSDAQ · ₩104200 · NHN벅스
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
₩1,874
vs the current price (₩2,535)
- Enterprise value
- ₩3.2B
- Equity value
- ₩28B
- WACC
- 7.4%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- ₩1,344
- −47.0%
- Base
- ₩1,874
- −26.1%
- Bull
- ₩2,863
- +12.9%
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
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Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (1.5%).
Revenue growth
- -10%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -6.7%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -3.5%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -0.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-12% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 1.5%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 4.2%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).
- 5.3%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- -2.5%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.11%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-28.
- 0.6
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 105 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.34, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.61%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩44B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- −₩19B
- + Stakes and investments
- ₩5.3B
- Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
- Shares
- 14,827,550
- Share price
- ₩2,535
- Market cap
- ₩38B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩57B | ₩52B | ₩45B | ₩39B | ₩37B | ₩35B | ₩35B | ₩36B |
| Growth | −13.7% | −8.4% | −13.8% | −10.0% | −6.7% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩804M | ₩357M | −₩735M | ₩588M | ₩549M | ₩529M | ₩528M | ₩544M |
| EBIT margin | 1.4% | 0.7% | −1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩583M | ₩259M | −₩533M | ₩426M | ₩398M | ₩384M | ₩383M | ₩395M |
| + Depreciation | — | — | — | ₩1.6B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.5B | ₩1.5B |
| − Capital spending | ₩4.2B | ₩3.4B | ₩836M | ₩2.1B | ₩1.9B | ₩1.9B | ₩1.9B | ₩1.9B |
| − Working capital | ₩3.6B | −₩4.7B | −₩579M | ₩109M | ₩66M | ₩32M | ₩1.8M | −₩26M |
| Free cash flow | — | — | — | −₩114M | −₩70M | −₩36M | −₩6.2M | ₩22M |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.931 | 0.867 | 0.807 | 0.751 | 0.700 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩106M | −₩61M | −₩29M | −₩4.6M | ₩15M |
Terminal value ₩4.9B, worth ₩3.4B today: 106% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩3,465 a share)Now 0.73× | ₩2,4360.70× | ₩3,1690.91× | ₩8,0242.32× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | ₩1,875 | ₩1,904 | ₩1,940 | ₩1,986 | ₩2,045 |
| 6.9% | ₩1,850 | ₩1,874 | ₩1,904 | ₩1,940 | ₩1,986 |
| 7.4% | ₩1,830 | ₩1,850 | ₩1,874 | ₩1,904 | ₩1,940 |
| 7.9% | ₩1,812 | ₩1,830 | ₩1,850 | ₩1,874 | ₩1,903 |
| 8.4% | ₩1,797 | ₩1,812 | ₩1,830 | ₩1,850 | ₩1,874 |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩38B
- Enterprise value
- ₩17B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 0.7×
- P/S
- 0.9×
- EV/EBITDA
- —
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩3,000 | ₩2,745 | ₩4,610 | ₩5,700 | ₩19,100 |
| Market cap | ₩44B | ₩41B | ₩68B | ₩85B | ₩283B |
| P/E | — | — | — | 33.4× | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 0.7× | 1.0× | 1.1× | 4.0× |
| P/S | 1.0× | 0.8× | 1.2× | 1.3× | 4.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHN Bugs | — | 0.7× | 0.9× | — | 0.0% |
| NAVER | 13.1× | 0.9× | 2.0× | — | 1.5% |
| Kakao | 37.7× | 1.1× | 1.6× | — | 0.3% |
| Daou Technology | 1.9× | 0.4× | 0.0× | — | 5.6% |
| NICE Information Service | 11.3× | 2.0× | 1.6× | 6.6× | 3.0% |
| Kinx | 24.4× | 2.7× | 3.5× | 10.7× | 0.5% |
| Cafe24 | 11.5× | 1.5× | 1.3× | — | 0.0% |
| Similar companies (median) | 12.3× | 1.3× | 1.6× | 6.6× | 1.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: NHN Bugs / NHN벅스 / 104200 / KRX:104200
Source: KRX statistical information