KISCO

104700 · KOSPI · ₩104700 · 한국철강

₩10,430▲ ₩40 (0.38%)End-of-day · Oct 30, 2026 · End-of-day prices.
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Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)

We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.

Fair value per share

₩13,397

vs the current price (₩10,430)

Enterprise value
₩155B
Equity value
₩488B
WACC
7.3%

Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.

Bear / Base / Bull

Bear
₩10,385
−0.4%
Base
₩13,397
+28.4%
Bull
₩19,050
+82.6%

Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.

Assumptions

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Cycle options

Margin path

Every year uses the cycle-average margin (3.3%).

Revenue growth

  • -10%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -6.7%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -3.5%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • -0.2%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

  • 3%

    How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.

    Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-23% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.

Business

  • 3.3%

    Operating profit as a share of revenue.

    Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.

  • 27.5%

    Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.

    Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.

  • 2.2%

    The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).

    Default: not in the statements, so 80% of capital spending (most spending replaces equipment that wears out).

  • 2.8%

    Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).

    Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).

  • 20.3%

    Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.

    Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.

Discount rate

  • 2%

    How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.

    Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.

  • 4.01%

    Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.

    Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.

  • 0.6

    How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.

    Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.13, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.

  • 5.5%

    The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.

    Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.

  • 5.51%

    The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.

    Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.

Starting point

Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
₩534B
Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
−₩332B
+ Stakes and investments
₩1.3B
Associates, long-term financial assets and deposits (book value)
Shares
36,450,000
Share price
₩10,430
Market cap
₩380B

TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.

Past years and projection

Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.

FY2023FY2024FY2025Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5
Revenue₩905B₩600B₩487B₩480B₩448B₩432B₩432B₩444B
Growth−14.9%−33.7%−18.9%−10.0%−6.7%−3.5%−0.2%3.0%
EBIT₩87B₩1.8B−₩39B₩16B₩15B₩14B₩14B₩15B
EBIT margin9.6%0.3%−8.0%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%
After-tax EBIT₩63B₩1.3B−₩28B₩11B₩11B₩10B₩10B₩11B
+ Depreciation———₩11B₩9.9B₩9.5B₩9.5B₩9.8B
− Capital spending₩4.2B₩24B₩19B₩13B₩13B₩12B₩12B₩12B
− Working capital−₩279B−₩82B−₩45B−₩11B−₩6.5B−₩3.2B−₩176M₩2.6B
Free cash flow———₩19B₩15B₩11B₩7.9B₩5.3B
Discount factor———0.9320.8680.8090.7540.703
Present value———₩18B₩13B₩8.8B₩6B₩3.8B

Terminal value ₩151B, worth ₩106B today: 68% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.

Cross-check: what the market has paid before

For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:

LowTypicalHigh
Price / book (book value ₩20,309 a share)Now 0.51×₩5,8210.29×₩7,9080.39×₩9,7880.48×

Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.

Sensitivity

Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.

WACC ↓ · Terminal growth →1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%
6.3%₩13,883₩14,059₩14,274₩14,542₩14,889
6.8%₩13,507₩13,636₩13,790₩13,978₩14,212
7.3%₩13,190₩13,286₩13,397₩13,530₩13,692
7.8%₩12,920₩12,990₩13,071₩13,166₩13,278
8.3%₩12,687₩12,738₩12,797₩12,864₩12,942

Now (TTM)

Market cap
₩380B
Enterprise value
₩49B
P/E
—
P/B
0.5×
P/S
0.7×
EV/EBITDA
—
Dividend yield
7.2%

Over time (at each year end)

20252024202320222021
Price₩9,930₩8,380₩6,580₩6,090₩7,740
Market cap₩362B₩305B₩240B₩222B₩282B
P/E—13.0×3.5×2.8×2.9×
P/B0.5×0.4×0.3×0.3×0.4×
P/S0.7×0.5×0.3×0.2×0.3×
EV/EBITDA—————
Dividend yield7.6%9.5%———

Versus similar companies

CompanyP/EP/BP/SEV/EBITDADividend yield
KISCO—0.5×0.7×—7.2%
POSCO Holdings16.1×0.4×0.3×7.7×3.7%
Korea Zinc18.6×1.6×0.9×—2.3%
Hyundai Steel—0.2×0.1×—1.9%
Poongsan8.0×0.7×0.3×5.9×3.0%
SeAH Besteel Holdings11.5×0.5×0.3×9.2×4.2%
Sama Aluminium—4.0×2.9×—0.0%
Similar companies (median)13.8×0.6×0.3×7.7×2.6%

Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.

Also known as: KISCO / 한국철강 / 104700 / KRX:104700

Source: KRX statistical information