KNW케이엔더블유
105330 · KOSDAQ · ₩105330 · 케이엔더블유
Valuation model · Discounted cash flow (DCF)
We use a 5-year discounted cash flow: the value of the cash the business is expected to produce, in today's money.
Fair value per share
With these assumptions the model gives no positive value.
- Enterprise value
- −₩104B
- Equity value
- −₩233B
- WACC
- 5.7%
Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal. This is not financial advice.
Why the model and the price differ
The model gives no positive value at these assumptions. What we can see:
- To match today's price of ₩7,250, the model needs an operating margin of 30.0% every year (it uses 2.4%).
- Margins ranged from −3.6% to 15.4% over the last 5 years, so this is a cyclical business. The model uses the average; the price may be set by where the cycle is now. Try the margin fade option.
- In the projection, spending on equipment, software and working capital takes most or all of the after-tax operating profit, so free cash flow is thin. Companies that invest heavily often look like this until spending slows.
Treat the model as a starting point: change the assumptions to the story you believe, and compare with the multiples check below.
Bear / Base / Bull
- Bear
- —
- Base
- —
- Bull
- —
Bear: revenue growth 3 points lower every year, EBIT margin 2 points lower, WACC 1 point higher. Bull: the opposite.
Assumptions
Sign in to change the assumptions and see the results update. Sign in
Cycle options
Margin path
Every year uses the cycle-average margin (2.4%).
Revenue growth
- -6.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -4.2%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- -1.8%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 0.6%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
- 3%
How much sales grow that year, compared with the year before.
Default: the last 3 years' revenue growth (-6.6% a year, annual reports), fading to 3% by year 5.
Business
- 2.4%
Operating profit as a share of revenue.
Default: through-the-cycle average of the last 12 months and the last 5 annual reports' operating margins.
- 27.5%
Share of operating profit paid as corporate tax.
Default: Korea's top corporate tax rate (25%) plus 10% local income tax.
- 5.6%
The non-cash cost of wearing out equipment, added back to cash flow (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 48.9%
Money spent on factories, equipment, software and other long-term assets (% of revenue).
Default: average of the last 3 annual reports (cash flow statements; equipment and intangibles).
- 1%
Stock and unpaid customer bills, less unpaid supplier bills, as a % of revenue. Each year's extra revenue ties up this much more cash.
Default: working capital (current assets less cash and deposits, minus current liabilities other than borrowings) as a share of revenue, averaged over the last 3 years.
Discount rate
- 2%
How fast cash flows keep growing every year after year 5.
Default: about Korea's long-run inflation plus real growth.
- 4.01%
Yield on Korea's 10-year government bond: the return with almost no risk.
Default: Korea Treasury Bond 10-year yield on 2026-10-30.
- 0.65
How much the share moves when the market moves: 1 means just like the market.
Default: 104 weeks of weekly returns against KOSPI (official index); raw beta 0.48, adjusted toward 1 and kept between 0.6 and 2.0.
- 5.5%
The extra return investors want for owning shares instead of bonds.
Default: a typical premium for Korean shares.
- 5.51%
The interest rate the company would pay to borrow.
Default: the 10-year yield plus a 1.5% credit spread.
Starting point
- Revenue (TTM to H1 2026)
- ₩76B
- Net debt (borrowings and leases − cash and deposits)
- ₩128B
- Shares
- 16,019,520
- Share price
- ₩7,250
- Market cap
- ₩116B
TTM = trailing 12 months: the last four reported quarters added together. "TTM to H1 2026" is the 12 months up to the latest quarterly or half-year report (H1 = to the end of June). Year 1 grows from there.
Past years and projection
Grey columns are reported results from the annual reports (after-tax EBIT at the model's tax rate), so you can check the growth and margin assumptions against the past. Years 1–5 are the model.
| FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₩95B | ₩78B | ₩81B | ₩71B | ₩68B | ₩67B | ₩67B | ₩69B |
| Growth | −4.2% | −17.7% | 3.3% | −6.6% | −4.2% | −1.8% | 0.6% | 3.0% |
| EBIT | ₩5.2B | −₩2.3B | −₩3B | ₩1.7B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.6B | ₩1.7B |
| EBIT margin | 5.5% | −2.9% | −3.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| After-tax EBIT | ₩3.8B | −₩1.7B | −₩2.1B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B | ₩1.2B |
| + Depreciation | ₩4.2B | ₩4.5B | ₩5.4B | ₩4B | ₩3.8B | ₩3.8B | ₩3.8B | ₩3.9B |
| − Capital spending | ₩7.2B | ₩21B | ₩91B | ₩35B | ₩33B | ₩33B | ₩33B | ₩34B |
| − Working capital | ₩12B | −₩13B | −₩4B | −₩50M | −₩30M | −₩12M | ₩4M | ₩20M |
| Free cash flow | −₩11B | −₩4.6B | −₩84B | −₩30B | −₩28B | −₩28B | −₩28B | −₩29B |
| Discount factor | — | — | — | 0.946 | 0.895 | 0.847 | 0.801 | 0.758 |
| Present value | — | — | — | −₩28B | −₩25B | −₩24B | −₩22B | −₩22B |
Terminal value ₩22B, worth ₩17B today: -16% of enterprise value. It assumes spending settles at 110% of depreciation once growth slows to the terminal rate.
Cross-check: what the market has paid before
For cyclical businesses, analysts check a DCF against the multiples the stock has traded at through past cycles. Price / book is the usual anchor for them: P/E looks highest at the bottom of a cycle, when earnings are smallest, and lowest at the top. The price each band would give today:
| Low | Typical | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price / book (book value ₩7,038 a share)Now 1.03× | ₩3,5720.51× | ₩7,8781.12× | ₩18,8522.68× |
Low, typical and high are the 10th percentile, middle and 90th percentile of month-end multiples since 2021, each against the latest report out by then, per share at today's share count; loss years and P/E above 100 are left out. Run-rate earnings are one quarter × 4, not a forecast. Model estimate based on the assumptions shown. Not a price target and not a buy or sell signal.
Sensitivity
Fair value per share as two inputs change; the middle is the current case.
| WACC ↓ · Terminal growth → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.2% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6.7% | — | — | — | — | — |
Now (TTM)
- Market cap
- ₩116B
- Enterprise value
- ₩243B
- P/E
- —
- P/B
- 1.0×
- P/S
- 1.5×
- EV/EBITDA
- 163.4×
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Over time (at each year end)
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ₩5,830 | ₩3,475 | ₩8,520 | ₩8,100 | ₩15,500 |
| Market cap | ₩93B | ₩56B | ₩136B | ₩130B | ₩248B |
| P/E | — | 16.2× | 66.5× | 7.2× | 243.4× |
| P/B | 0.8× | 0.4× | 1.1× | 1.7× | 4.3× |
| P/S | 1.2× | 0.7× | 1.4× | 1.3× | 3.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 68.3× | 14.6× | 11.5× | 7.2× | 24.0× |
| Dividend yield | 0.0% | — | — | — | — |
Versus similar companies
| Company | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNW | — | 1.0× | 1.5× | 163.4× | 0.0% |
| Hyundai Mobis | 8.3× | 0.6× | 0.5× | — | 1.9% |
| SL | 5.9× | 0.8× | 0.4× | 3.6× | 0.0% |
| HL Mando | 10.3× | 0.6× | 0.2× | — | 2.0% |
| Hyundai WIA | 18.9× | 0.4× | 0.2× | — | 2.4% |
| Samhyun | — | 11.2× | 15.8× | — | 0.0% |
| SNT Dynamics | 12.5× | 0.7× | 0.8× | — | 7.3% |
| Similar companies (median) | 10.3× | 0.6× | 0.4× | 3.6× | 2.0% |
Calculated from end-of-day prices and filed financial statements. Not a recommendation. This is not financial advice.
Also known as: KNW / 케이엔더블유 / 105330 / KRX:105330
Source: KRX statistical information